UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nelson vs Santiago

2,061

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Nelson

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
68% chance Nelson
WILL WIN

1,933

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gunnar Nelson
Much stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 7.7 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better submission offense 9.4 vs 8.2 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Younger 29 years vs 36 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Fast finishes 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger jaw 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better striker 8.5 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Jorge Santiago
Significantly heavier hands 8.3 vs 7.1 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better submission defense 9.7 vs 8.8 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 188 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Harder to hit 8.8 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Nelson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Santiago’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gunnar
Nelson
In 11:51, how much damage will he do? Nelson Santiago
Significant Strikes46
Nelson's average striking offense is matched by Santiago's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 107 Significant Strikes in 11:51
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Nelson's average takedown offense is matched by Santiago's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:51
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nelson is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nelson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nelson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Santiago on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nelson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jorge
Santiago
In 11:51, how much damage will he do? Santiago Nelson
Significant Strikes48
Santiago's average striking offense is matched by Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 107 Significant Strikes in 11:51
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Santiago's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:51
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Santiago has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Santiago has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Santiago is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nelson 8.5
fighter Santiago 8.3
Great striking by Nelson
42 strikes Feb 16, 2013 vs Santiago
9 strikes Sep 29, 2012 vs Johnson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nelson 8.7
fighter Santiago 7.7
Great takedowns by Nelson
2 takedowns Feb 16, 2013 vs Santiago
1 takedown Sep 29, 2012 vs Johnson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nelson 7.1
fighter Santiago 8.3
Great knockouts by Santiago
Round 5 Aug 22, 2010 vs Misaki
Round 3 Nov 01, 2008 vs Nakamura
Round 1 Nov 16, 2007 vs Prangley

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nelson 9.4
fighter Santiago 8.2
Great submissions by Nelson
Round 1 Feb 25, 2012 vs Butenko
Round 1 Sep 25, 2010 vs Fadiora
Round 1 Aug 28, 2010 vs Mitchell

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nelson 9.0
fighter Santiago 8.7
Fast finishes by Nelson
261 seconds Feb 25, 2012 vs Butenko
231 seconds Sep 25, 2010 vs Fadiora
171 seconds Aug 28, 2010 vs Mitchell
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 16, 2013UFC on Fuel TV 7
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XR2 KO
1,9152,059
1,9851,990
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nelson
legend Santiago
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus