UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nelson vs Jones

2,061

CageRank

WINNER
Jones

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
86% chance Jones
WILL WIN

2,377

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jon Jones
Much heavier hands 8.5 vs 7.1 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.6 vs 8.5 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much better takedown defense 9.9 vs 8.4 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much longer reach 215 cm vs 183 cm More than 15% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Much harder to hit 9.6 vs 8.7 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger jaw 9.7 vs 8.7 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
A lot taller 193 cm vs 180 cm More than 5% taller
Heavier 205 lbs vs 169 lbs More than 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.1 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Gunnar Nelson
Much better submission offense 9.4 vs 8.2 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Jones on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nelson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jon
Jones
In 10:37, how much damage will he do? Jones Nelson
Significant Strikes71
Jones's excellent striking offense will dominate Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:37
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Jones's excellent takedown offense will dominate Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:37
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Nelson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jones’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gunnar
Nelson
In 10:37, how much damage will he do? Nelson Jones
Significant Strikes25
Nelson's average striking offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:37
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nelson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:37
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nelson is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nelson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nelson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Jones 9.6
fighter Nelson 8.5
Great striking by Jones
20 strikes Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
105 strikes Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
61 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Jones 9.4
fighter Nelson 8.7
Great takedowns by Jones
3 takedowns Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
1 takedown Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
2 takedowns Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Jones 8.6
fighter Nelson 7.1
Great knockouts by Jones
Round 1 Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
Round 3 Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Round 1 Aug 01, 2010 vs Matyushenko

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Jones 8.2
fighter Nelson 9.4
Great submissions by Nelson
Round 1 Feb 25, 2012 vs Butenko
Round 1 Sep 25, 2010 vs Fadiora
Round 1 Aug 28, 2010 vs Mitchell

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Jones 8.9
fighter Nelson 9.0
Fast finishes by Nelson
261 seconds Feb 25, 2012 vs Butenko
231 seconds Sep 25, 2010 vs Fadiora
171 seconds Aug 28, 2010 vs Mitchell
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Jones
legend Nelson
Read More
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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