UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nelson vs Ponzinibbio

2,061

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Nelson

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
79% chance Nelson
WILL WIN

1,835

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gunnar Nelson
Much better submission offense 9.4 vs 7.3 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly fast finishes 9.0 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better takedown defense 8.4 vs 7.9 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 8.3 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.7 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better striker 8.5 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Younger 28 years vs 30 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Santiago Ponzinibbio
Heavier hands 7.8 vs 7.1 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Taller 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Nelson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ponzinibbio’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gunnar
Nelson
In 8:39, how much damage will he do? Nelson Ponzinibbio
Significant Strikes42
Nelson's average striking offense is matched by Ponzinibbio's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 78 Significant Strikes in 8:39
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Nelson's average takedown offense is matched by Ponzinibbio's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:39
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nelson is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nelson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nelson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Ponzinibbio on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nelson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Santiago
Ponzinibbio
In 8:39, how much damage will he do? Ponzinibbio Nelson
Significant Strikes34
Ponzinibbio's average striking offense is matched by Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 78 Significant Strikes in 8:39
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Ponzinibbio's average takedown offense is matched by Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:39
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ponzinibbio is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Ponzinibbio is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Ponzinibbio is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nelson 8.5
fighter Ponzinibbio 8.3
Great striking by Nelson
42 strikes Feb 16, 2013 vs Santiago
9 strikes Sep 29, 2012 vs Johnson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nelson 8.7
fighter Ponzinibbio 8.3
Great takedowns by Nelson
2 takedowns Feb 16, 2013 vs Santiago
1 takedown Sep 29, 2012 vs Johnson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nelson 7.1
fighter Ponzinibbio 7.8
Great knockouts by Ponzinibbio
Round 2 Dec 12, 2011 vs Dias
Round 1 Sep 17, 2011 vs Nascimento
Round 2 Apr 24, 2010 vs Inseto

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nelson 9.4
fighter Ponzinibbio 7.3
Great submissions by Nelson
Round 1 Feb 25, 2012 vs Butenko
Round 1 Sep 25, 2010 vs Fadiora
Round 1 Aug 28, 2010 vs Mitchell

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nelson 9.0
fighter Ponzinibbio 8.2
Fast finishes by Nelson
261 seconds Feb 25, 2012 vs Butenko
231 seconds Sep 25, 2010 vs Fadiora
171 seconds Aug 28, 2010 vs Mitchell
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nelson
legend Ponzinibbio
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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