UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Johnson vs Nelson

1,626

CageRank

WINNER
Nelson

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
92% chance Nelson
WILL WIN

2,061

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gunnar Nelson
Much better submission offense 9.4 vs 7.3 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.0 vs 7.7 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 7.9 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better striker 8.5 vs 8.0 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 8.4 vs 7.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission defense 8.8 vs 7.8 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.2 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 8.7 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 29 years vs 35 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Advantages for DaMarques Johnson
Significantly longer reach 191 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier hands 7.4 vs 7.1 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Taller 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Nelson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Johnson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gunnar
Nelson
In 6:31, how much damage will he do? Nelson Johnson
Significant Strikes29
Nelson's average striking offense is matched by Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 59 Significant Strikes in 6:31
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Nelson's average takedown offense may be a factor against Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:31
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nelson is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Nelson has a very good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Nelson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Johnson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nelson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
DaMarques
Johnson
In 6:31, how much damage will he do? Johnson Nelson
Significant Strikes21
Johnson's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 59 Significant Strikes in 6:31
Below average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Johnson's average takedown offense is matched by Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:31
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Johnson is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Johnson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Johnson is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nelson 8.5
fighter Johnson 8.0
Great striking by Nelson
42 strikes Feb 16, 2013 vs Santiago
9 strikes Sep 29, 2012 vs Johnson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nelson 8.7
fighter Johnson 8.0
Great takedowns by Nelson
2 takedowns Feb 16, 2013 vs Santiago
1 takedown Sep 29, 2012 vs Johnson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nelson 7.1
fighter Johnson 7.4
Great knockouts by Johnson
Round 1 Nov 12, 2011 vs Harvison
Round 3 Apr 10, 2010 vs Blackburn
Round 1 Apr 05, 2008 vs Niitsuma

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nelson 9.4
fighter Johnson 7.3
Great submissions by Nelson
Round 1 Feb 25, 2012 vs Butenko
Round 1 Sep 25, 2010 vs Fadiora
Round 1 Aug 28, 2010 vs Mitchell

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nelson 9.0
fighter Johnson 7.7
Fast finishes by Nelson
261 seconds Feb 25, 2012 vs Butenko
231 seconds Sep 25, 2010 vs Fadiora
171 seconds Aug 28, 2010 vs Mitchell
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
September 29, 2012UFC on Fuel TV 5
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XR2 SUB
1,7431,884
1,7121,915
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nelson
legend Johnson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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