UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Caceres vs Pettis

1,877

CageRank

WINNER
Pettis

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
57% chance Pettis
WILL WIN

1,925

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Sergio Pettis
Much stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 7.3 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly fast finishes 7.9 vs 7.3 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Heavier hands 7.3 vs 6.9 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Younger 24 years vs 29 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense 8.2 vs 7.9 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Alex Caceres
Much heavier 134 lbs vs 125 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
A lot taller 175 cm vs 168 cm Around 5% taller
Significantly harder to hit 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission offense 7.8 vs 7.3 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better takedown defense 8.0 vs 7.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger jaw 8.7 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Pettis on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Caceres’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Sergio
Pettis
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Pettis Caceres
Significant Strikes64
Pettis's average striking offense is matched by Caceres's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Pettis's average takedown offense is matched by Caceres's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Pettis is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Pettis is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Pettis has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Caceres on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Pettis’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alex
Caceres
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Caceres Pettis
Significant Strikes74
Caceres's average striking offense is matched by Pettis's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Caceres's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Pettis's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Caceres is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Caceres has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Caceres is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Pettis 8.6
fighter Caceres 8.6
Great striking by Caceres
53 strikes Jan 25, 2014 vs Pettis
106 strikes Sep 21, 2013 vs Delorme
64 strikes Nov 10, 2012 vs Tezuka

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Pettis 8.4
fighter Caceres 7.3
Great takedowns by Pettis
2 takedowns Nov 16, 2013 vs Campuzano

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Pettis 7.3
fighter Caceres 6.9
Great knockouts by Pettis
Round 1 Jun 21, 2013 vs Pegg
Round 2 Nov 18, 2011 vs Zelinski
Round 1 Aug 15, 2009 vs Winski

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Pettis 7.3
fighter Caceres 7.8
Great submissions by Caceres
Round 3 Jan 25, 2014 vs Pettis
Round 2 Jul 11, 2012 vs Page
Round 1 May 14, 2009 vs Garcia

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Pettis 7.9
fighter Caceres 7.3
Fast finishes by Pettis
153 seconds Sep 28, 2013 vs Porter
51 seconds Jun 21, 2013 vs Pegg
232 seconds Jun 16, 2012 vs McKenna
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
January 25, 2014UFC on Fox 10
team
VS
team
R3 SUBX
XDEC
1,8291,959
1,8971,891
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Pettis
legend Caceres
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus