UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Ludwig vs Morgan

1,750

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Ludwig

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
73% chance Ludwig
WILL WIN

1,576

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Duane Ludwig
Better striker 8.6 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly heavier 169 lbs vs 164 lbs Around 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Significantly heavier hands 7.3 vs 6.2 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Better takedown defense 7.5 vs 7.3 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Advantages for Sam Morgan
Much stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 7.0 More than 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission offense 7.6 vs 7.0 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Younger 37 years vs 40 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Ludwig on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Morgan’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Duane
Ludwig
In 9:15, how much damage will he do? Ludwig Morgan
Significant Strikes56
Ludwig's good striking offense may be a factor against Morgan's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 83 Significant Strikes in 9:15
Good
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Ludwig's poor takedown offense is matched by Morgan's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:15
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Poor
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ludwig has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Ludwig is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Ludwig is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Morgan on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ludwig’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Sam
Morgan
In 9:15, how much damage will he do? Morgan Ludwig
Significant Strikes28
Morgan's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Ludwig's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 83 Significant Strikes in 9:15
Below average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Morgan's average takedown offense may be a factor against Ludwig's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:15
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Morgan is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Morgan is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Morgan is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Ludwig 8.6
fighter Morgan 7.9
Great striking by Ludwig
123 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Sadollah
48 strikes Nov 21, 2008 vs Edwards
1 strike Jan 16, 2006 vs Goulet

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Ludwig 7.3
fighter Morgan 6.2
Great knockouts by Ludwig
Round 2 Dec 08, 2006 vs Fryklund
Round 1 Jan 16, 2006 vs Goulet
Round 1 Jan 25, 2003 vs Pulver

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Ludwig 7.0
fighter Morgan 7.6
Great submissions by Morgan
Round 1 Nov 14, 2003 vs Riley
Round 1 May 24, 2003 vs Severson
Round 1 Apr 18, 2003 vs Kirk

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Ludwig 7.6
fighter Morgan 7.5
Fast finishes by Ludwig
110 seconds Sep 15, 2007 vs Stapel
11 seconds Jan 16, 2006 vs Goulet
73 seconds Jan 25, 2003 vs Pulver
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 3, 2008Strikeforce - Payback
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
R2 KOX
1,7841,602
1,8101,576
April 9, 2005ROF 16
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
R2 SUBX
1,7911,646
1,7211,716
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Ludwig
legend Morgan
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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