UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Diaz vs Gomi

2,056

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
56% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,012

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 7.0 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much longer reach 193 cm vs 178 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Much taller 183 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.3 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly stronger takedown offense 7.8 vs 7.2 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better striker 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 32 years vs 38 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Takanori Gomi
Significantly better takedown defense 8.7 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly heavier hands 8.4 vs 7.4 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger jaw 9.6 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gomi’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 11:28, how much damage will he do? Diaz Gomi
Significant Strikes74
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Gomi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:28
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Gomi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:28
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Gomi on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Takanori
Gomi
In 11:28, how much damage will he do? Gomi Diaz
Significant Strikes59
Gomi's good striking offense may be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:28
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Gomi's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:28
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gomi has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gomi is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gomi has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.3
fighter Gomi 8.9
Great striking by Diaz
33 strikes Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
46 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Miller
238 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Cerrone

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.8
fighter Gomi 7.2
Great takedowns by Diaz
1 takedown Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis
2 takedowns Sep 16, 2009 vs Guillard
5 takedowns Sep 17, 2008 vs Neer

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 7.4
fighter Gomi 8.4
Great knockouts by Gomi
Round 2 Feb 26, 2012 vs Mitsuoka
Round 1 Aug 01, 2010 vs Griffin
Round 1 Dec 31, 2006 vs Ishida

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.6
fighter Gomi 7.0
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Gomi 8.2
Fast finishes by Diaz
158 seconds Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
549 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Miller
267 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
September 24, 2011UFC 135
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
XDEC
1,8702,004
1,9381,936
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Gomi
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus