UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Diaz vs Ferguson

2,056

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
60% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

1,986

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 7.2 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.4 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Younger 31 years vs 33 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Tony Ferguson
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.4 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better takedown defense 8.9 vs 7.9 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.8 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ferguson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 10:36, how much damage will he do? Diaz Ferguson
Significant Strikes67
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 95 Significant Strikes in 10:36
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:36
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Ferguson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tony
Ferguson
In 10:36, how much damage will he do? Ferguson Diaz
Significant Strikes48
Ferguson's good striking offense may be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 95 Significant Strikes in 10:36
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Ferguson's average takedown offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:36
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ferguson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Ferguson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Ferguson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.3
fighter Ferguson 8.6
Great striking by Diaz
33 strikes Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
46 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Miller
238 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Cerrone

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.8
fighter Ferguson 8.1
Great takedowns by Ferguson
1 takedown Dec 03, 2011 vs Edwards
2 takedowns Jun 04, 2011 vs Nijem

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 7.4
fighter Ferguson 8.8
Great knockouts by Ferguson
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley
Round 1 Jun 04, 2011 vs Nijem
Round 4 Sep 25, 2010 vs Jardine

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.6
fighter Ferguson 7.2
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Ferguson 8.8
Fast finishes by Ferguson
112 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs Rio
300 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley
1055 seconds Sep 25, 2010 vs Jardine
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Ferguson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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