UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Diaz vs Diaz

2,056

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
63% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Much heavier hands 8.4 vs 7.4 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better takedown defense 8.8 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger jaw 9.8 vs 8.9 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better striker 9.7 vs 9.3 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 9.5 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Significantly better submission offense 8.6 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger takedown offense 7.8 vs 7.6 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Slightly younger 31 years vs 33 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 12:34, how much damage will he do? Diaz Diaz
Significant Strikes86
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 113 Significant Strikes in 12:34
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:34
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 12:34, how much damage will he do? Diaz Diaz
Significant Strikes84
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 113 Significant Strikes in 12:34
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:34
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Diaz 9.3
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.6
fighter Diaz 7.8
Great takedowns by Diaz
1 takedown Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis
2 takedowns Sep 16, 2009 vs Guillard
5 takedowns Sep 17, 2008 vs Neer

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Diaz 7.4
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Diaz 8.6
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Diaz 8.7
Fast finishes by Diaz
158 seconds Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
549 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Miller
267 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Diaz
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus