UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Stephens vs Carneiro

1,978

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Stephens

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
57% chance Stephens
WILL WIN

1,930

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jeremy Stephens
Much heavier hands 8.2 vs 6.9 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.6 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Fast finishes 8.0 vs 7.7 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Advantages for Renato Carneiro
Much better submission offense 8.3 vs 6.5 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Taller 180 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Younger 27 years vs 30 years 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stephens on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Carneiro’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jeremy
Stephens
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Stephens has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Stephens is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Stephens is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Carneiro on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Stephens’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Renato
Carneiro
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Carneiro is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Carneiro has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Carneiro has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Stephens 8.2
fighter Carneiro 6.9
Great knockouts by Stephens
Round 1 Nov 09, 2013 vs Mariano Bezerra
Round 3 Jan 01, 2011 vs Davis
Round 2 Jan 23, 2008 vs Miller

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Stephens 6.5
fighter Carneiro 8.3
Great submissions by Carneiro
Round 2 Apr 06, 2013 vs Chaulet
Round 2 Dec 18, 2010 vs Felipe
Round 3 Mar 20, 2010 vs Almeida

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Stephens 8.0
fighter Carneiro 7.7
Fast finishes by Stephens
40 seconds Nov 09, 2013 vs Mariano Bezerra
753 seconds Jan 01, 2011 vs Davis
584 seconds Jan 23, 2008 vs Miller
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Stephens
legend Carneiro
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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