UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Brunson vs Carneiro

1,862

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Brunson

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
54% chance Brunson
WILL WIN

1,831

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Derek Brunson
Much heavier hands 7.6 vs 6.4 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.0 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly fast finishes 8.4 vs 7.9 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 34 years vs 40 years 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better striker 8.2 vs 8.0 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 8.7 vs 8.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% taller
Heavier 186 lbs vs 169 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Longer reach 198 cm vs 193 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Advantages for Roan Carneiro
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 8.5 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly stronger jaw 8.7 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission offense 7.9 vs 7.6 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Brunson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Carneiro’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Derek
Brunson
In 9:33, how much damage will he do? Brunson Carneiro
Significant Strikes30
Brunson's average striking offense won't be a factor against Carneiro's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 86 Significant Strikes in 9:33
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Brunson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Carneiro's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:33
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Brunson is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Brunson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Brunson is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Carneiro on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Brunson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Roan
Carneiro
In 9:33, how much damage will he do? Carneiro Brunson
Significant Strikes31
Carneiro's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Brunson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 86 Significant Strikes in 9:33
Below average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Carneiro's excellent takedown offense will dominate Brunson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:33
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Carneiro is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Carneiro is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Carneiro is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Brunson 8.2
fighter Carneiro 8.0
Great striking by Brunson
1 strike Nov 06, 2013 vs Houston
41 strikes Dec 29, 2012 vs Leben
40 strikes Nov 18, 2011 vs James

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Brunson 8.5
fighter Carneiro 9.3
Great takedowns by Carneiro
3 takedowns Dec 29, 2007 vs DeSouza
7 takedowns Apr 05, 2007 vs Clementi

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Brunson 7.6
fighter Carneiro 6.4
Great knockouts by Brunson
Round 1 Jan 22, 2011 vs Babcock
Round 1 Jun 26, 2010 vs McNally
Round 1 Feb 27, 2010 vs Tavares

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Brunson 7.6
fighter Carneiro 7.9
Great submissions by Carneiro
Round 1 Mar 24, 2012 vs Hwan Cha
Round 0 Oct 15, 2005 vs Mattos
Round 1 Sep 04, 2004 vs Jenkins

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Brunson 8.4
fighter Carneiro 7.9
Fast finishes by Brunson
48 seconds Nov 06, 2013 vs Houston
273 seconds Jul 30, 2011 vs Sayers
102 seconds Jun 26, 2010 vs McNally
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 21, 2016UFC Fight Night 83
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Brunson
legend Carneiro
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus