UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Thomson vs Gonzalez

2,018

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Thomson

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
91% chance Thomson
WILL WIN

1,622

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Josh Thomson
Much harder to hit 9.4 vs 8.5 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.4 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better submission defense 9.3 vs 7.6 Around 25% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 8.1 vs 7.0 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 7.9 More than 20% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Much taller 178 cm vs 168 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly better takedown defense 8.4 vs 7.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly longer reach 180 cm vs 171 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly heavier hands 7.9 vs 7.2 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better striker 8.4 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Nick Gonzalez
Significantly heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Younger 37 years vs 39 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Thomson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gonzalez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Josh
Thomson
In 8:36, how much damage will he do? Thomson Gonzalez
Significant Strikes39
Thomson's average striking offense is matched by Gonzalez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 77 Significant Strikes in 8:36
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Thomson's average takedown offense may be a factor against Gonzalez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:36
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Thomson is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Thomson has a chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Thomson is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Gonzalez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Thomson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Gonzalez
In 8:36, how much damage will he do? Gonzalez Thomson
Significant Strikes20
Gonzalez's average striking offense won't be a factor against Thomson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 77 Significant Strikes in 8:36
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Gonzalez's average takedown offense is matched by Thomson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:36
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gonzalez is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gonzalez is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gonzalez has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Thomson 8.4
fighter Gonzalez 8.3
Great striking by Thomson
36 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Diaz
16 strikes Oct 09, 2010 vs Cavalcante
100 strikes Jun 27, 2008 vs Melendez

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Thomson 8.6
fighter Gonzalez 8.3
Great takedowns by Thomson
1 takedown Apr 20, 2013 vs Diaz
1 takedown Oct 09, 2010 vs Cavalcante
6 takedowns Jun 27, 2008 vs Melendez

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Thomson 7.9
fighter Gonzalez 7.2
Great knockouts by Thomson
Round 2 Apr 20, 2013 vs Diaz
Round 1 Sep 20, 2008 vs Bowman
Round 1 Sep 29, 2007 vs Lynn

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Thomson 7.9
fighter Gonzalez 6.4
Great submissions by Thomson
Round 3 Jun 26, 2010 vs Healy
Round 1 Jun 22, 2007 vs Gonzalez
Round 2 Oct 07, 2006 vs Ludwig

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Thomson 8.1
fighter Gonzalez 7.0
Fast finishes by Thomson
524 seconds Apr 20, 2013 vs Diaz
867 seconds Jun 26, 2010 vs Healy
102 seconds Jun 22, 2007 vs Gonzalez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
DECX
1,9361,759
1,9631,733
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Thomson
legend Gonzalez
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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