UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Noons vs Diaz

1,928

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
78% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.8 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.3 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly stronger jaw 9.8 vs 8.9 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly stronger takedown offense 7.6 vs 7.0 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Taller 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 9.1 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 169 lbs vs 167 lbs Almost the same
Advantages for K.J. Noons
From what we can tell, Nick Diaz dominates K.J. Noons in every way.
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Noons’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Diaz Noons
Significant Strikes111
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Noons's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Noons's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Noons on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
K.J.
Noons
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Noons Diaz
Significant Strikes87
Noons's good striking offense may be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Noons's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Noons has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Noons is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Noons has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Noons 8.8
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.6
fighter Noons 7.0
Great takedowns by Diaz
1 takedown May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
1 takedown Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
3 takedowns Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Noons 8.4
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Noons 6.3
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Noons 8.2
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR5 DEC
XR2 KO
1,9352,105
1,9082,132
November 10, 2007EliteXC - Renegade
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XR2 KO
1,6891,953
1,7711,871
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Noons
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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