UFC fight predictions and analysis
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CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Berry vs Smith

1,634

CageRank

WINNER
Smith

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
79% chance Smith
WILL WIN

1,866

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Trevor Smith
Much better submission offense 8.2 vs 6.4 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better striker 8.7 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Taller 191 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% taller
Fast finishes 8.1 vs 7.6 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger jaw 8.0 vs 7.6 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Longer reach 191 cm vs 187 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Keith Berry
Better takedown defense 8.3 vs 7.9 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Younger 30 years vs 37 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier hands 7.2 vs 6.5 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Smith on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Berry’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Trevor
Smith
In 10:34, how much damage will he do? Smith Berry
Significant Strikes60
Smith's good striking offense may be a factor against Berry's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 95 Significant Strikes in 10:34
Good
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Smith's average takedown offense is matched by Berry's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:34
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Smith is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Smith has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Smith is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Berry on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Smith’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Keith
Berry
In 10:34, how much damage will he do? Berry Smith
Significant Strikes45
Berry's average striking offense is matched by Smith's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 95 Significant Strikes in 10:34
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Berry's average takedown offense is matched by Smith's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:34
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Berry is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Berry is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Berry is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Smith 8.7
fighter Berry 8.1
Great striking by Smith
57 strikes Jan 15, 2014 vs Houston
11 strikes Nov 18, 2011 vs Cook

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Smith 6.5
fighter Berry 7.2
Great knockouts by Berry
Round 1 Sep 22, 2012 vs Gibson
Round 1 Nov 08, 2009 vs Avants
Round 1 May 05, 2006 vs Rider

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Smith 8.2
fighter Berry 6.5
Great submissions by Smith
Round 1 Jun 16, 2012 vs Moreno
Round 1 Nov 18, 2011 vs Cook
Round 2 Jun 24, 2011 vs Berry

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Smith 8.1
fighter Berry 7.7
Fast finishes by Smith
261 seconds Jun 16, 2012 vs Moreno
268 seconds Nov 18, 2011 vs Cook
142 seconds Jul 31, 2010 vs Kovacs
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR2 SUB
XR2 SUB
1,6661,759
1,6291,796
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Smith
legend Berry
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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