UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Smith vs Rua

1,781

CageRank

WINNER
Rua

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
80% chance Rua
WILL WIN

2,020

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Mauricio Rua
Much heavier hands 9.3 vs 7.9 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.4 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much harder to hit 9.4 vs 8.6 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 7.8 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better takedown defense 8.1 vs 7.6 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.6 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 8.4 vs 8.0 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 205 lbs vs 184 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Anthony Smith
Much better submission offense 7.5 vs 6.5 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Younger 30 years vs 36 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Taller 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% taller
Slightly longer reach 196 cm vs 193 cm Almost the same
Rua on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Smith’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mauricio
Rua
In 8:57, how much damage will he do? Rua Smith
Significant Strikes55
Rua's excellent striking offense will dominate Smith's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 81 Significant Strikes in 8:57
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Rua's average takedown offense may be a factor against Smith's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:57
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rua has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rua is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Rua is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Smith on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rua’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Anthony
Smith
In 8:57, how much damage will he do? Smith Rua
Significant Strikes24
Smith's average striking offense won't be a factor against Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 81 Significant Strikes in 8:57
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Smith's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:57
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Smith is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Smith is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Smith is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Rua 9.3
fighter Smith 8.4
Great striking by Rua
16 strikes Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
17 strikes May 08, 2010 vs Machida
48 strikes Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Rua 8.3
fighter Smith 7.8
Great takedowns by Rua
8 takedowns Dec 31, 2006 vs Nakamura
7 takedowns Jun 26, 2005 vs Rogerio Nogueira
1 takedown Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Rua 9.3
fighter Smith 7.9
Great knockouts by Rua
Round 1 Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
Round 1 May 08, 2010 vs Machida
Round 1 Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Rua 6.5
fighter Smith 7.5
Great submissions by Smith
Round 1 Aug 18, 2012 vs Sayers
Round 1 Apr 15, 2011 vs Gabel
Round 2 Sep 20, 2008 vs Parmelee

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Rua 8.8
fighter Smith 8.2
Fast finishes by Rua
113 seconds Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
215 seconds May 08, 2010 vs Machida
268 seconds Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 22, 2018UFC Fight Night 134
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Rua
legend Smith
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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