UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Smith vs Lombard

1,781

CageRank

WINNER
Lombard

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
93% chance Lombard
WILL WIN

2,230

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Hector Lombard
Much better submission defense 9.7 vs 8.0 More than 20% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.2 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better takedown defense 8.6 vs 7.6 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly heavier hands 9.3 vs 7.9 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Puts up a fight 10.0 vs 8.6 More than 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly stronger jaw 9.6 vs 8.4 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better striker 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 7.8 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Advantages for Anthony Smith
Much taller 193 cm vs 175 cm More than 10% taller
Much longer reach 196 cm vs 180 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly younger 29 years vs 39 years More than 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Lombard on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Smith’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Hector
Lombard
In 6:27, how much damage will he do? Lombard Smith
Significant Strikes34
Lombard's good striking offense may be a factor against Smith's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 58 Significant Strikes in 6:27
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Lombard's average takedown offense may be a factor against Smith's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:27
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lombard has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lombard is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Lombard is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Smith on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lombard’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Anthony
Smith
In 6:27, how much damage will he do? Smith Lombard
Significant Strikes28
Smith's average striking offense is matched by Lombard's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 58 Significant Strikes in 6:27
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Smith's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Lombard's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:27
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Smith is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Smith is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Smith is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Lombard 8.9
fighter Smith 8.4
Great striking by Lombard
10 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Marquardt
24 strikes Dec 15, 2012 vs Palhares

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Lombard 9.3
fighter Smith 7.9
Great knockouts by Lombard
Round 1 Oct 19, 2013 vs Marquardt
Round 1 Dec 15, 2012 vs Palhares
Round 3 May 14, 2011 vs Vitale

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Lombard 7.4
fighter Smith 7.5
Great submissions by Smith
Round 1 Aug 18, 2012 vs Sayers
Round 1 Apr 15, 2011 vs Gabel
Round 2 Sep 20, 2008 vs Parmelee

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Lombard 9.4
fighter Smith 8.2
Fast finishes by Lombard
108 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs Marquardt
218 seconds Dec 15, 2012 vs Palhares
386 seconds Sep 03, 2011 vs Taylor
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Lombard
legend Smith
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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