UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Smith vs Neer

1,781

CageRank

WINNER
Neer

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
66% chance Neer
WILL WIN

1,900

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Josh Neer
Significantly better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.0 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better submission offense 7.9 vs 7.5 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better takedown defense 8.2 vs 7.6 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly heavier hands 8.4 vs 7.9 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 9.0 vs 8.6 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Anthony Smith
Much harder to hit 8.6 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
A lot taller 193 cm vs 180 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly longer reach 196 cm vs 183 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Younger 28 years vs 34 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Stronger takedown offense 7.8 vs 7.6 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Neer on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Smith’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Josh
Neer
In 9:56, how much damage will he do? Neer Smith
Significant Strikes42
Neer's average striking offense is matched by Smith's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 89 Significant Strikes in 9:56
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Neer's below average takedown offense is matched by Smith's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:56
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Neer has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Neer has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Neer is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Smith on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Neer’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Anthony
Smith
In 9:56, how much damage will he do? Smith Neer
Significant Strikes57
Smith's average striking offense may be a factor against Neer's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 89 Significant Strikes in 9:56
Average
Striking
vs
Poor
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Smith's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Neer's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:56
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Smith is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Smith is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Smith is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Neer 8.4
fighter Smith 8.4
Great striking by Smith
12 strikes Aug 18, 2012 vs Sayers

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Neer 8.4
fighter Smith 7.9
Great knockouts by Neer
Round 2 Oct 01, 2011 vs Wisniewski
Round 1 Jun 25, 2011 vs Juarez
Round 1 Sep 10, 2004 vs Macias

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Neer 7.9
fighter Smith 7.5
Great submissions by Neer
Round 1 Jan 20, 2012 vs Ludwig
Round 2 Feb 07, 2009 vs Danzig
Round 1 Sep 14, 2005 vs Petz

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Neer 8.6
fighter Smith 8.2
Fast finishes by Neer
600 seconds Oct 01, 2011 vs Wisniewski
300 seconds Jun 25, 2011 vs Juarez
516 seconds Feb 07, 2009 vs Danzig
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
January 29, 2016VFC 47
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XX
00
00
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XX
00
00
team
VS
team
XR3 SUB
XR2 KO
1,7801,854
1,7401,893
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Neer
legend Smith
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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