UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Smith vs Ferreira

1,781

CageRank

WINNER
Ferreira

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
58% chance Ferreira
WILL WIN

1,836

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Cezar Ferreira
Much better takedown defense 8.7 vs 7.6 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission defense 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger takedown offense 8.2 vs 7.8 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Longer reach 199 cm vs 196 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Anthony Smith
Significantly stronger jaw 8.4 vs 7.6 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly heavier hands 7.9 vs 7.3 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.2 vs 7.8 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 8.6 vs 8.0 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% taller
Heavier 205 lbs vs 184 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better striker 8.4 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Younger 30 years vs 33 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly better submission offense 7.5 vs 7.4 Almost the same
Ferreira on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Smith’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Cezar
Ferreira
In 12:21, how much damage will he do? Ferreira Smith
Significant Strikes49
Ferreira's average striking offense is matched by Smith's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 111 Significant Strikes in 12:21
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Ferreira's average takedown offense may be a factor against Smith's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:21
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ferreira is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Ferreira is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Ferreira is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Smith on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ferreira’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Anthony
Smith
In 12:21, how much damage will he do? Smith Ferreira
Significant Strikes46
Smith's average striking offense won't be a factor against Ferreira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 111 Significant Strikes in 12:21
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Smith's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Ferreira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:21
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Smith has a chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Smith is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Smith is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Ferreira 8.3
fighter Smith 8.4
Great striking by Smith
12 strikes Aug 18, 2012 vs Sayers

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Ferreira 8.2
fighter Smith 7.8
Great takedowns by Ferreira
3 takedowns Nov 09, 2013 vs Sarafian

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Ferreira 7.3
fighter Smith 7.9
Great knockouts by Smith
Round 2 Jul 22, 2011 vs Lagman
Round 1 Jun 04, 2011 vs Schambari
Round 2 Jun 19, 2010 vs Clark

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Ferreira 7.4
fighter Smith 7.5
Great submissions by Smith
Round 1 Aug 18, 2012 vs Sayers
Round 1 Apr 15, 2011 vs Gabel
Round 2 Sep 20, 2008 vs Parmelee

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Ferreira 7.8
fighter Smith 8.2
Fast finishes by Smith
232 seconds Aug 18, 2012 vs Sayers
106 seconds Jun 04, 2011 vs Schambari
386 seconds Sep 20, 2008 vs Parmelee
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 8, 2016TUF 23 Finale
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Ferreira
legend Smith
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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