UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Henderson vs Aoki

2,280

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Henderson

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
54% chance Henderson
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Benson Henderson
Better striker 9.0 vs 7.4 More than 20% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Significantly heavier hands 6.8 vs 6.1 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.1 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 8.3 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.8 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.7 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 10.0 vs 9.6 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Taller 180 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.1 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Longer reach 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Henderson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Benson
Henderson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Henderson Aoki
Significant Strikes39
Henderson's excellent striking offense is matched by Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Henderson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Henderson is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Henderson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Aoki Henderson
Significant Strikes14
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Poor
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Henderson 9.0
fighter Aoki 7.4
Great striking by Henderson
68 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Melendez
87 strikes Feb 26, 2012 vs Edgar
65 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Miller

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.7
fighter Aoki 9.6
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Henderson 6.8
fighter Aoki 6.1
Great knockouts by Henderson
Round 2 Aug 26, 2016 vs Freire
Round 1 Apr 05, 2009 vs Roller
Round 1 Feb 16, 2007 vs Williams

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.3
fighter Aoki 9.9
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Henderson 8.1
fighter Aoki 9.4
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Henderson
legend Aoki
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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