UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Henderson vs Roller

2,280

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Henderson

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
93% chance Henderson
WILL WIN

1,825

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Benson Henderson
Much harder to hit 9.6 vs 8.3 Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 9.0 vs 7.8 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly better submission defense 9.1 vs 7.9 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.4 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 8.3 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission offense 8.3 vs 7.8 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Younger 33 years vs 37 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Shane Roller
Heavier hands 7.3 vs 6.8 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Henderson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Roller’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Benson
Henderson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Henderson Roller
Significant Strikes91
Henderson's excellent striking offense will dominate Roller's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Henderson's average takedown offense is matched by Roller's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Henderson is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Henderson has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Roller on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Henderson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shane
Roller
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Roller Henderson
Significant Strikes21
Roller's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Below average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Roller's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Roller is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Roller is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Roller is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Henderson 9.0
fighter Roller 7.8
Great striking by Henderson
68 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Melendez
87 strikes Feb 26, 2012 vs Edgar
65 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Miller

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.7
fighter Roller 8.3
Great takedowns by Henderson
1 takedown Feb 26, 2012 vs Edgar
2 takedowns Nov 12, 2011 vs Guida
7 takedowns Aug 14, 2011 vs Miller

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Henderson 6.8
fighter Roller 7.3
Great knockouts by Roller
Round 2 Mar 03, 2011 vs Tavares
Round 1 Mar 15, 2008 vs Kitaoka
Round 1 Nov 16, 2007 vs Winthers

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.3
fighter Roller 7.8
Great submissions by Henderson
Round 1 Apr 24, 2010 vs Cerrone
Round 3 Jan 10, 2010 vs Varner
Round 2 Jan 25, 2009 vs Njokuani

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Henderson 8.1
fighter Roller 8.1
Fast finishes by Henderson
117 seconds Apr 24, 2010 vs Cerrone
761 seconds Jan 10, 2010 vs Varner
342 seconds Jan 25, 2009 vs Njokuani
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 5, 2009WEC 40
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
R1 SUBX
1,8231,737
1,8611,699
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Henderson
legend Roller
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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