UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Henderson vs Alvarez

2,280

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Henderson

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
57% chance Henderson
WILL WIN

2,231

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Benson Henderson
Much harder to hit 9.6 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission offense 8.3 vs 8.0 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Advantages for Eddie Alvarez
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 6.8 Around 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.1 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Henderson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alvarez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Benson
Henderson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Henderson Alvarez
Significant Strikes79
Henderson's excellent striking offense will dominate Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Henderson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Henderson is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Alvarez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Henderson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Eddie
Alvarez
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Alvarez Henderson
Significant Strikes41
Alvarez's good striking offense won't be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Alvarez's excellent takedown offense will dominate Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alvarez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Henderson 9.0
fighter Alvarez 8.7
Great striking by Henderson
68 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Melendez
87 strikes Feb 26, 2012 vs Edgar
65 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Miller

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.7
fighter Alvarez 9.2
Great takedowns by Alvarez
2 takedowns Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
7 takedowns May 11, 2008 vs Hansen
3 takedowns Mar 15, 2008 vs Amado

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Henderson 6.8
fighter Alvarez 8.8
Great knockouts by Alvarez
Round 1 Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
Round 2 Oct 21, 2010 vs Huerta
Round 1 Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.3
fighter Alvarez 8.1
Great submissions by Henderson
Round 1 Apr 24, 2010 vs Cerrone
Round 3 Jan 10, 2010 vs Varner
Round 2 Jan 25, 2009 vs Njokuani

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Henderson 8.1
fighter Alvarez 8.9
Fast finishes by Alvarez
134 seconds Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
338 seconds Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada
455 seconds Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Henderson
legend Alvarez
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 1 comment.
I'm 1000% for Eddie, but he has to come in at 100%. He has all the tools to beat an excellent former champ like Henderson. I see what the UFC matchmakers are trying to do...showcase that the UFC fighters are a few steps about those of "other" organizations. As is the norm, they are not giving Eddie any easy fights and he's getting back to back very tough, skilled opponents. Something rarely seen in the boxing game. That being said, Eddie HAS TO win, there's no choice here. Back to back loses and you don't know what the UFC does with his future. With the UFC "nerves" over and done, and a determination to prove himself Alvarez will look to make a statement against the former UFC champ. What did Eddie in vs. Cowboy were the leg kicks. Old school tip on how to condition the legs for that type of punishment. Nope, having guys kick you in sparring doesn't do the job as well as the following. Get a baseball bat and wrap old pillows around it. Have your trainer whack your legs during training(stand up and ground). When sparring do the same IN ADDITION to having sparring partners kick U. Do this once a week ONLY as you need a full week to recoup. Eliminate this drill 2 1/2 weeks before your fight. This develops the core ability to fight through the physical pain and be mentally strong to utilize your own effective arsenal. Got carried away...just my 2 cents
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