UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Henderson vs Diaz

2,280

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Henderson

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
78% chance Henderson
WILL WIN

2,056

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Benson Henderson
Much harder to hit 9.6 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 8.8 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 7.8 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Much longer reach 193 cm vs 178 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
A lot taller 183 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Heavier hands 7.4 vs 6.8 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission offense 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Henderson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Benson
Henderson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Henderson Diaz
Significant Strikes79
Henderson's excellent striking offense will dominate Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Henderson's average takedown offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Henderson is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Henderson has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Henderson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Diaz Henderson
Significant Strikes61
Diaz's excellent striking offense is matched by Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Henderson 9.0
fighter Diaz 9.3
Great striking by Diaz
33 strikes Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
46 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Miller
238 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Cerrone

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.7
fighter Diaz 7.8
Great takedowns by Henderson
1 takedown Feb 26, 2012 vs Edgar
2 takedowns Nov 12, 2011 vs Guida
7 takedowns Aug 14, 2011 vs Miller

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Henderson 6.8
fighter Diaz 7.4
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
Round 1 Mar 27, 2010 vs Markham
Round 1 May 05, 2006 vs Rael

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.3
fighter Diaz 8.6
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Henderson 8.1
fighter Diaz 8.7
Fast finishes by Diaz
158 seconds Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
549 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Miller
267 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 8, 2012UFC on Fox 5
team
VS
team
R5 DECX
DECX
2,2232,078
2,2532,047
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Henderson
legend Diaz
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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