UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Henderson vs Thomson

2,280

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Henderson

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
82% chance Henderson
WILL WIN

2,018

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Benson Henderson
Significantly better striker 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Significantly younger 30 years vs 36 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission offense 8.3 vs 7.9 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Harder to hit 9.6 vs 9.4 Almost the same
Advantages for Josh Thomson
Significantly heavier hands 7.9 vs 6.8 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Longer reach 180 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 9.1 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Henderson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Thomson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Benson
Henderson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Henderson Thomson
Significant Strikes56
Henderson's excellent striking offense is matched by Thomson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Henderson's average takedown offense is matched by Thomson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Henderson is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Henderson has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Thomson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Henderson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Josh
Thomson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Thomson Henderson
Significant Strikes35
Thomson's average striking offense won't be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Thomson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Thomson is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Thomson is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Thomson is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Henderson 9.0
fighter Thomson 8.4
Great striking by Henderson
68 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Melendez
87 strikes Feb 26, 2012 vs Edgar
65 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Miller

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.7
fighter Thomson 8.6
Great takedowns by Henderson
1 takedown Feb 26, 2012 vs Edgar
2 takedowns Nov 12, 2011 vs Guida
7 takedowns Aug 14, 2011 vs Miller

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Henderson 6.8
fighter Thomson 7.9
Great knockouts by Thomson
Round 2 Apr 20, 2013 vs Diaz
Round 1 Sep 20, 2008 vs Bowman
Round 1 Sep 29, 2007 vs Lynn

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.3
fighter Thomson 7.9
Great submissions by Henderson
Round 1 Apr 24, 2010 vs Cerrone
Round 3 Jan 10, 2010 vs Varner
Round 2 Jan 25, 2009 vs Njokuani

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Henderson 8.1
fighter Thomson 8.1
Fast finishes by Thomson
524 seconds Apr 20, 2013 vs Diaz
867 seconds Jun 26, 2010 vs Healy
102 seconds Jun 22, 2007 vs Gonzalez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
January 25, 2014UFC on Fox 10
team
VS
team
R5 DECX
DECX
2,2282,092
2,2602,061
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Henderson
legend Thomson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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