UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Henderson vs Aldo

2,280

CageRank

WINNER
Aldo

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
54% chance Aldo
WILL WIN

2,308

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jose Aldo
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 6.8 Around 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Slightly younger 31 years vs 33 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Benson Henderson
Much better submission offense 8.3 vs 6.6 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 7.9 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 9.6 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Taller 175 cm vs 170 cm Around 5% taller
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Aldo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Henderson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jose
Aldo
In 12:07, how much damage will he do? Aldo Henderson
Significant Strikes38
Aldo's good striking offense won't be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 109 Significant Strikes in 12:07
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Aldo's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:07
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aldo is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Henderson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aldo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Benson
Henderson
In 12:07, how much damage will he do? Henderson Aldo
Significant Strikes51
Henderson's excellent striking offense is matched by Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 109 Significant Strikes in 12:07
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Henderson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:07
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Henderson is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aldo 8.9
fighter Henderson 9.0
Great striking by Henderson
68 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Melendez
87 strikes Feb 26, 2012 vs Edgar
65 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Miller

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aldo 7.9
fighter Henderson 8.7
Great takedowns by Henderson
1 takedown Feb 26, 2012 vs Edgar
2 takedowns Nov 12, 2011 vs Guida
7 takedowns Aug 14, 2011 vs Miller

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aldo 8.8
fighter Henderson 6.8
Great knockouts by Aldo
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
Round 2 Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
Round 1 Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aldo 6.6
fighter Henderson 8.3
Great submissions by Henderson
Round 1 Apr 24, 2010 vs Cerrone
Round 3 Jan 10, 2010 vs Varner
Round 2 Jan 25, 2009 vs Njokuani

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aldo 8.7
fighter Henderson 8.1
Fast finishes by Aldo
299 seconds Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
380 seconds Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
8 seconds Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aldo
legend Henderson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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