UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Henderson vs Melendez

2,280

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Henderson

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
55% chance Henderson
WILL WIN

2,243

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Benson Henderson
Much better submission offense 8.3 vs 6.5 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 9.6 vs 9.0 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Advantages for Gilbert Melendez
Much heavier hands 8.3 vs 6.8 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Longer reach 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger takedown offense 8.9 vs 8.7 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 8.3 vs 8.1 Almost the same
Henderson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Melendez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Benson
Henderson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Henderson Melendez
Significant Strikes71
Henderson's excellent striking offense will dominate Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Henderson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Henderson is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Melendez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Henderson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gilbert
Melendez
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Melendez Henderson
Significant Strikes63
Melendez's excellent striking offense is matched by Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Melendez's good takedown offense is matched by Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Melendez is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Henderson 9.0
fighter Melendez 9.3
Great striking by Melendez
96 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
33 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
69 strikes Apr 17, 2010 vs Aoki

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.7
fighter Melendez 8.9
Great takedowns by Melendez
1 takedown Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
5 takedowns May 19, 2012 vs Thomson
2 takedowns Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Henderson 6.8
fighter Melendez 8.3
Great knockouts by Melendez
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
Round 3 Aug 15, 2009 vs Ishida
Round 2 Oct 10, 2003 vs Palling

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.3
fighter Melendez 6.5
Great submissions by Henderson
Round 1 Apr 24, 2010 vs Cerrone
Round 3 Jan 10, 2010 vs Varner
Round 2 Jan 25, 2009 vs Njokuani

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Henderson 8.1
fighter Melendez 8.3
Fast finishes by Melendez
194 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
836 seconds Aug 15, 2009 vs Ishida
92 seconds Aug 20, 2005 vs Sato
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 20, 2013UFC on Fox 7
team
VS
team
R5 DECX
XDEC
2,2532,261
2,3042,210
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Henderson
legend Melendez
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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