UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Henderson vs Varner

2,280

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Henderson

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
93% chance Henderson
WILL WIN

1,835

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Benson Henderson
Much harder to hit 9.6 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better submission offense 8.3 vs 7.6 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 175 cm vs 173 cm Almost the same
Better submission defense 9.1 vs 8.7 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Jamie Varner
Significantly heavier hands 7.6 vs 6.8 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 182 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Fast finishes 8.3 vs 8.1 Almost the same
Younger 32 years vs 34 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Henderson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Varner’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Benson
Henderson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Henderson Varner
Significant Strikes74
Henderson's excellent striking offense will dominate Varner's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Henderson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Varner's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Henderson is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Henderson has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Varner on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Henderson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jamie
Varner
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Varner Henderson
Significant Strikes48
Varner's good striking offense won't be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Varner's good takedown offense is matched by Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Varner is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Varner is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Varner is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Henderson 9.0
fighter Varner 8.9
Great striking by Henderson
68 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Melendez
87 strikes Feb 26, 2012 vs Edgar
65 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Miller

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.7
fighter Varner 8.8
Great takedowns by Varner
7 takedowns Dec 29, 2012 vs Guillard
2 takedowns May 26, 2012 vs Barboza
3 takedowns Feb 13, 2008 vs McCullough

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Henderson 6.8
fighter Varner 7.7
Great knockouts by Varner
Round 1 May 26, 2012 vs Barboza
Round 1 Aug 03, 2008 vs Hicks
Round 3 Feb 13, 2008 vs McCullough

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.3
fighter Varner 7.6
Great submissions by Henderson
Round 1 Apr 24, 2010 vs Cerrone
Round 3 Jan 10, 2010 vs Varner
Round 2 Jan 25, 2009 vs Njokuani

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Henderson 8.1
fighter Varner 8.3
Fast finishes by Varner
203 seconds May 26, 2012 vs Barboza
128 seconds Aug 03, 2008 vs Hicks
774 seconds Feb 13, 2008 vs McCullough
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
January 10, 2010WEC 46
team
VS
team
R3 SUBX
XR2 KO
1,9162,027
1,9811,962
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Henderson
legend Varner
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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