UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Henderson vs Thatch

2,280

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Henderson

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
82% chance Henderson
WILL WIN

2,017

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Benson Henderson
Much harder to hit 9.6 vs 8.6 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 8.8 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission offense 8.3 vs 7.7 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better submission defense 9.1 vs 8.7 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Brandon Thatch
Much heavier hands 9.0 vs 6.8 More than 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.8 vs 8.1 More than 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
A lot taller 188 cm vs 175 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly longer reach 189 cm vs 178 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly younger 31 years vs 33 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Henderson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Thatch’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Benson
Henderson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Henderson Thatch
Significant Strikes84
Henderson's excellent striking offense will dominate Thatch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Henderson's average takedown offense is matched by Thatch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Henderson is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Thatch on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Henderson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brandon
Thatch
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Thatch Henderson
Significant Strikes48
Thatch's good striking offense won't be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Thatch's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Thatch has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Thatch is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Thatch is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Henderson 9.0
fighter Thatch 8.9
Great striking by Henderson
68 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Melendez
87 strikes Feb 26, 2012 vs Edgar
65 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Miller

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.7
fighter Thatch 8.6
Great takedowns by Henderson
1 takedown Feb 26, 2012 vs Edgar
2 takedowns Nov 12, 2011 vs Guida
7 takedowns Aug 14, 2011 vs Miller

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Henderson 6.8
fighter Thatch 9.0
Great knockouts by Thatch
Round 1 Nov 09, 2013 vs Thiago
Round 1 Aug 28, 2013 vs Edwards
Round 1 Dec 02, 2011 vs Vallee

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.3
fighter Thatch 7.7
Great submissions by Henderson
Round 1 Apr 24, 2010 vs Cerrone
Round 3 Jan 10, 2010 vs Varner
Round 2 Jan 25, 2009 vs Njokuani

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Henderson 8.1
fighter Thatch 9.8
Fast finishes by Thatch
130 seconds Nov 09, 2013 vs Thiago
83 seconds Aug 28, 2013 vs Edwards
15 seconds Dec 02, 2011 vs Vallee
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 14, 2015UFC Fight Night 60
team
VS
team
R4 SUBX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Henderson
legend Thatch
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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