UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Overeem vs Jones

2,010

CageRank

WINNER
Jones

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
89% chance Jones
WILL WIN

2,377

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jon Jones
Much stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 7.9 More than 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much heavier hands 8.5 vs 7.8 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Much stronger jaw 9.7 vs 8.7 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly longer reach 215 cm vs 202 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly harder to hit 9.6 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Younger 30 years vs 37 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission offense 8.2 vs 7.9 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better striker 9.6 vs 9.4 Almost the same
Fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Better takedown defense 9.9 vs 9.7 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Alistair Overeem
Significantly heavier 256 lbs vs 205 lbs Around 25% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 196 cm vs 193 cm Almost the same
Jones on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Overeem’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jon
Jones
In 11:24, how much damage will he do? Jones Overeem
Significant Strikes64
Jones's excellent striking offense is matched by Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:24
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Jones's excellent takedown offense is matched by Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:24
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Overeem on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jones’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alistair
Overeem
In 11:24, how much damage will he do? Overeem Jones
Significant Strikes49
Overeem's excellent striking offense is matched by Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:24
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Overeem's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:24
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Overeem is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Overeem is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Overeem is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Jones 9.6
fighter Overeem 9.4
Great striking by Jones
20 strikes Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
105 strikes Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
61 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Jones 9.4
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great takedowns by Jones
3 takedowns Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
1 takedown Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
2 takedowns Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Jones 8.6
fighter Overeem 7.8
Great knockouts by Jones
Round 1 Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
Round 3 Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Round 1 Aug 01, 2010 vs Matyushenko

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Jones 8.2
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great submissions by Jones
Round 4 Sep 22, 2012 vs Belfort
Round 2 Dec 10, 2011 vs Machida
Round 4 Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Jones 8.9
fighter Overeem 8.8
Fast finishes by Jones
273 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
974 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson
757 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Jones
legend Overeem
Read More
Overeem vs Ngannou
Fantasy Cage Match
Jones vs Ngannou
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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