UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Overeem vs Belfort

2,010

CageRank

WINNER
Belfort

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
77% chance Belfort
WILL WIN

2,220

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Vitor Belfort
Much heavier hands 10.0 vs 7.8 Around 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 10.0 vs 8.8 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much harder to hit 9.8 vs 9.2 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger jaw 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Alistair Overeem
Much better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.9 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much heavier 256 lbs vs 184 lbs Around 40% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
A lot taller 196 cm vs 183 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly longer reach 202 cm vs 188 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better takedown defense 9.7 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger takedown offense 7.9 vs 7.5 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better striker 9.4 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Younger 37 years vs 40 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Belfort on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Overeem’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Vitor
Belfort
In 7:15, how much damage will he do? Belfort Overeem
Significant Strikes34
Belfort's excellent striking offense is matched by Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 65 Significant Strikes in 7:15
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Belfort's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:15
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Belfort has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Belfort is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Belfort is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Overeem on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Belfort’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alistair
Overeem
In 7:15, how much damage will he do? Overeem Belfort
Significant Strikes28
Overeem's excellent striking offense is matched by Belfort's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 65 Significant Strikes in 7:15
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Overeem's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Belfort's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:15
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Overeem is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Overeem is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Overeem is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Belfort 9.2
fighter Overeem 9.4
Great striking by Overeem
32 strikes Jun 18, 2011 vs Werdum
36 strikes Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
5 strikes Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Belfort 7.6
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great takedowns by Overeem
3 takedowns Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
1 takedown Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
1 takedown Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Belfort 10.0
fighter Overeem 7.8
Great knockouts by Belfort
Round 1 Nov 09, 2013 vs Henderson
Round 2 Jan 19, 2013 vs Bisping
Round 1 Sep 19, 2009 vs Franklin

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Belfort 6.9
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great submissions by Overeem
Round 2 Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
Round 1 Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Round 1 Oct 10, 2004 vs Glunder

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Belfort 10.0
fighter Overeem 8.8
Fast finishes by Belfort
77 seconds Nov 09, 2013 vs Henderson
387 seconds Jan 19, 2013 vs Bisping
182 seconds Sep 19, 2009 vs Franklin
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
R1 SUBX
1,9421,830
1,9771,795
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
R1 KOX
1,9101,824
1,9471,786
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Belfort
legend Overeem
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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