UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Overeem vs Velasquez

1,953

CageRank

WINNER
Velasquez

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
82% chance Velasquez
WILL WIN

2,220

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Cain Velasquez
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 7.9 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much heavier hands 9.9 vs 7.8 More than 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 10.0 vs 9.4 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly harder to hit 9.7 vs 9.2 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger jaw 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Fast finishes 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 31 years vs 33 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Alistair Overeem
Significantly better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.8 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
A lot taller 196 cm vs 185 cm More than 5% taller
Heavier 256 lbs vs 241 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Longer reach 202 cm vs 196 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission defense 9.1 vs 8.6 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better takedown defense 9.7 vs 9.5 Almost the same
Velasquez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Overeem’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Cain
Velasquez
In 9:37, how much damage will he do? Velasquez Overeem
Significant Strikes62
Velasquez's excellent striking offense is matched by Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 87 Significant Strikes in 9:37
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Velasquez's excellent takedown offense is matched by Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:37
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Velasquez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Velasquez is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Velasquez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Overeem on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Velasquez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alistair
Overeem
In 9:37, how much damage will he do? Overeem Velasquez
Significant Strikes38
Overeem's excellent striking offense is matched by Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 87 Significant Strikes in 9:37
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Overeem's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:37
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Overeem is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Overeem has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Overeem is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Velasquez 10.0
fighter Overeem 9.4
Great striking by Velasquez
18 strikes May 25, 2013 vs Silva
111 strikes Dec 29, 2012 vs dos Santos
23 strikes Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Velasquez 9.2
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great takedowns by Velasquez
2 takedowns Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
11 takedowns Dec 29, 2012 vs dos Santos
5 takedowns Oct 24, 2009 vs Rothwell

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Velasquez 9.9
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great knockouts by Velasquez
Round 5 Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
Round 1 May 25, 2013 vs Silva
Round 1 Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Velasquez 6.8
fighter Overeem 8.0
Great submissions by Overeem
Round 2 Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
Round 1 Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Round 1 Oct 10, 2004 vs Glunder

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Velasquez 9.4
fighter Overeem 8.9
Fast finishes by Velasquez
1389 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
81 seconds May 25, 2013 vs Silva
140 seconds Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Velasquez
legend Overeem
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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