UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Overeem vs dos Santos

2,010

CageRank

WINNER
dos Santos

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
61% chance dos Santos
WILL WIN

2,091

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Junior dos Santos
Significantly heavier hands 9.2 vs 7.8 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger jaw 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better striker 9.6 vs 9.4 Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Younger 33 years vs 36 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Alistair Overeem
Significantly better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.9 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better takedown defense 9.7 vs 9.0 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier 256 lbs vs 239 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Harder to hit 9.2 vs 9.1 Almost the same
Taller 196 cm vs 193 cm Almost the same
Slightly stronger takedown offense 7.9 vs 7.7 Almost the same
dos Santos on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Overeem’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Junior
dos Santos
In 12:15, how much damage will he do? dos Santos Overeem
Significant Strikes69
dos Santos's excellent striking offense is matched by Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 110 Significant Strikes in 12:15
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
dos Santos's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:15
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
dos Santos has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
dos Santos is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
dos Santos is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Overeem on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against dos Santos’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alistair
Overeem
In 12:15, how much damage will he do? Overeem dos Santos
Significant Strikes67
Overeem's excellent striking offense will dominate dos Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 110 Significant Strikes in 12:15
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Overeem's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against dos Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:15
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Overeem is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Overeem is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Overeem is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter dos Santos 9.6
fighter Overeem 9.4
Great striking by dos Santos
59 strikes May 26, 2012 vs Mir
8 strikes Nov 12, 2011 vs Velasquez
70 strikes Sep 19, 2009 vs Filipovic

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter dos Santos 7.7
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great takedowns by Overeem
3 takedowns Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
1 takedown Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
1 takedown Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter dos Santos 9.2
fighter Overeem 7.8
Great knockouts by dos Santos
Round 2 May 26, 2012 vs Mir
Round 1 Nov 12, 2011 vs Velasquez
Round 1 Oct 25, 2008 vs Werdum

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter dos Santos 6.9
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great submissions by Overeem
Round 2 Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
Round 1 Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Round 1 Oct 10, 2004 vs Glunder

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter dos Santos 8.6
fighter Overeem 8.8
Fast finishes by Overeem
522 seconds Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
313 seconds Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
80 seconds Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 19, 2015UFC on Fox 17
team
VS
team
R2 KOX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend dos Santos
legend Overeem
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 2 comments.
This fight is such a toss up. Its basically Juniors boxing vs. Alistairs kickboxing and Its gonna be hard for junior to get inside i think.
overeem gets hurt to much in his fights and will get ko'd
comments powered by Disqus