UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Overeem vs Werdum

2,010

CageRank

WINNER
Werdum

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
74% chance Werdum
WILL WIN

2,192

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Fabricio Werdum
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 7.9 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission offense 8.5 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Puts up a fight 10.0 vs 9.3 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Fast finishes 9.0 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.2 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Alistair Overeem
Better striker 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier 256 lbs vs 242 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Longer reach 202 cm vs 196 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Younger 36 years vs 39 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Taller 196 cm vs 193 cm Almost the same
Better takedown defense 9.7 vs 9.5 Almost the same
Werdum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Overeem’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Fabricio
Werdum
In 11:16, how much damage will he do? Werdum Overeem
Significant Strikes50
Werdum's excellent striking offense is matched by Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 101 Significant Strikes in 11:16
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Werdum's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:16
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Werdum is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Werdum has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Werdum is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Overeem on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Werdum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alistair
Overeem
In 11:16, how much damage will he do? Overeem Werdum
Significant Strikes58
Overeem's excellent striking offense is matched by Werdum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 101 Significant Strikes in 11:16
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Overeem's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Werdum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:16
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Overeem is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Overeem is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Overeem is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Werdum 9.1
fighter Overeem 9.4
Great striking by Overeem
32 strikes Jun 18, 2011 vs Werdum
36 strikes Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
5 strikes Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Werdum 8.6
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great takedowns by Werdum
1 takedown Jun 08, 2013 vs Nogueira
3 takedowns Nov 07, 2009 vs Silva
1 takedown May 05, 2006 vs Overeem

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Werdum 7.9
fighter Overeem 7.8
Great knockouts by Werdum
Round 1 Jun 23, 2012 vs Russow
Round 1 Jun 07, 2008 vs Vera
Round 2 Jan 19, 2008 vs Gonzaga

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Werdum 8.5
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great submissions by Werdum
Round 2 Jun 08, 2013 vs Nogueira
Round 1 Jun 26, 2010 vs Emelianenko
Round 2 May 05, 2006 vs Overeem

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Werdum 9.0
fighter Overeem 8.8
Fast finishes by Werdum
461 seconds Jun 08, 2013 vs Nogueira
148 seconds Jun 23, 2012 vs Russow
69 seconds Jun 26, 2010 vs Emelianenko
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XR1 SUB
2,0662,079
2,1182,027
team
VS
team
XR2 SUB
R2 SUBX
2,0171,831
1,9421,905
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Werdum
legend Overeem
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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