UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Overeem vs Arlovski

2,010

CageRank

WINNER
Arlovski

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
61% chance Arlovski
WILL WIN

2,086

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Andrei Arlovski
Significantly heavier hands 9.0 vs 7.8 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Slightly better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Advantages for Alistair Overeem
Much better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.6 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly stronger takedown offense 7.9 vs 7.2 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Heavier 256 lbs vs 241 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Longer reach 202 cm vs 196 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 196 cm vs 193 cm Almost the same
Better takedown defense 9.7 vs 9.5 Almost the same
Arlovski on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Overeem’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Andrei
Arlovski
In 13:09, how much damage will he do? Arlovski Overeem
Significant Strikes57
Arlovski's excellent striking offense is matched by Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 118 Significant Strikes in 13:09
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Arlovski's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 13:09
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Arlovski has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Arlovski is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Arlovski is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Overeem on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Arlovski’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alistair
Overeem
In 13:09, how much damage will he do? Overeem Arlovski
Significant Strikes79
Overeem's excellent striking offense will dominate Arlovski's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 118 Significant Strikes in 13:09
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Overeem's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Arlovski's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 13:09
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Overeem is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Overeem is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Overeem is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Arlovski 9.0
fighter Overeem 9.4
Great striking by Overeem
32 strikes Jun 18, 2011 vs Werdum
36 strikes Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
5 strikes Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Arlovski 7.2
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great takedowns by Overeem
3 takedowns Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
1 takedown Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
1 takedown Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Arlovski 9.0
fighter Overeem 7.8
Great knockouts by Arlovski
Round 3 Jul 19, 2008 vs Rothwell
Round 1 Oct 07, 2005 vs Buentello
Round 1 Sep 26, 2003 vs Matyushenko

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Arlovski 6.6
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great submissions by Overeem
Round 2 Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
Round 1 Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Round 1 Oct 10, 2004 vs Glunder

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Arlovski 8.2
fighter Overeem 8.8
Fast finishes by Overeem
522 seconds Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
313 seconds Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
80 seconds Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R2 KOX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Arlovski
legend Overeem
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus