UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Overeem vs Rogerio Nogueira

2,010

CageRank

WINNER
Rogerio Nogueira

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
58% chance Rogerio Nogueira
WILL WIN

2,064

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Heavier hands 8.2 vs 7.8 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Advantages for Alistair Overeem
Significantly better striker 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly heavier 256 lbs vs 205 lbs Around 25% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Significantly better submission offense 7.9 vs 7.3 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger takedown offense 7.9 vs 7.5 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 196 cm vs 188 cm Around 5% taller
Younger 37 years vs 41 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Harder to hit 9.2 vs 9.1 Almost the same
Rogerio Nogueira on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Overeem’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Antonio
Rogerio Nogueira
In 13:18, how much damage will he do? Rogerio Nogueira Overeem
Significant Strikes51
Rogerio Nogueira's good striking offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 120 Significant Strikes in 13:18
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Rogerio Nogueira's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 13:18
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rogerio Nogueira has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rogerio Nogueira is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rogerio Nogueira has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Overeem on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rogerio Nogueira’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alistair
Overeem
In 13:18, how much damage will he do? Overeem Rogerio Nogueira
Significant Strikes73
Overeem's excellent striking offense will dominate Rogerio Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 120 Significant Strikes in 13:18
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Overeem's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Rogerio Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 13:18
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Overeem is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Overeem is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Overeem is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.8
fighter Overeem 9.4
Great striking by Overeem
32 strikes Jun 18, 2011 vs Werdum
36 strikes Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
5 strikes Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 7.5
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great takedowns by Overeem
3 takedowns Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
1 takedown Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
1 takedown Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.2
fighter Overeem 7.8
Great knockouts by Rogerio Nogueira
Round 1 Nov 21, 2009 vs Cane
Round 2 Jan 24, 2009 vs Matyushenko
Round 2 Jul 01, 2006 vs Overeem

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 7.3
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great submissions by Overeem
Round 2 Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
Round 1 Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Round 1 Oct 10, 2004 vs Glunder

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.2
fighter Overeem 8.8
Fast finishes by Overeem
522 seconds Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
313 seconds Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
80 seconds Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR2 KO
R1 SUBX
1,9771,962
1,9252,014
February 20, 2005Pride 29
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
R2 KOX
1,9671,913
1,9101,970
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Rogerio Nogueira
legend Overeem
Read More
Overeem vs Ngannou
Fantasy Cage Match
Rogerio Nogueira vs Nelson
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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