UFC fight predictions and analysis
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CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Overeem vs Buentello

2,010

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Overeem

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
76% chance Overeem
WILL WIN

1,815

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Alistair Overeem
Much better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.2 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 7.5 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.2 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.2 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Better striker 9.4 vs 8.5 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier 256 lbs vs 205 lbs Around 25% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Significantly stronger takedown offense 7.9 vs 7.3 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 37 years vs 43 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Longer reach 202 cm vs 196 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 196 cm vs 191 cm Around 5% taller
Advantages for Paul Buentello
Stronger jaw 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier hands 8.2 vs 7.8 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Overeem on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Buentello’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alistair
Overeem
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Overeem Buentello
Significant Strikes107
Overeem's excellent striking offense will dominate Buentello's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Overeem's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Buentello's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Overeem is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Overeem is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Overeem is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Buentello on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Overeem’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Paul
Buentello
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Buentello Overeem
Significant Strikes48
Buentello's average striking offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Buentello's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Buentello has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Buentello is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Buentello is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Overeem 9.4
fighter Buentello 8.5
Great striking by Overeem
32 strikes Jun 18, 2011 vs Werdum
36 strikes Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
5 strikes Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Overeem 7.9
fighter Buentello 7.3
Great takedowns by Overeem
3 takedowns Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
1 takedown Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
1 takedown Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Overeem 7.8
fighter Buentello 8.2
Great knockouts by Buentello
Round 2 Aug 23, 2013 vs McSweeney
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Eilers
Round 1 Oct 10, 2003 vs Montana

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Overeem 7.9
fighter Buentello 6.3
Great submissions by Overeem
Round 2 Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
Round 1 Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Round 1 Oct 10, 2004 vs Glunder

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Overeem 8.8
fighter Buentello 7.6
Fast finishes by Overeem
522 seconds Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
313 seconds Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
80 seconds Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R2 SUBX
XR2 KO
1,8291,960
1,8971,892
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Overeem
legend Buentello
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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