UFC fight predictions and analysis
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CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Overeem vs Kharitonov

2,010

CageRank

WINNER
Kharitonov

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
55% chance Kharitonov
WILL WIN

2,048

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Sergei Kharitonov
Significantly heavier hands 9.0 vs 7.8 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Alistair Overeem
Significantly harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Longer reach 202 cm vs 193 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Stronger takedown offense 7.9 vs 7.5 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better striker 9.4 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 196 cm vs 193 cm Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Slightly better submission offense 7.9 vs 7.7 Almost the same
Kharitonov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Overeem’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Sergei
Kharitonov
In 10:39, how much damage will he do? Kharitonov Overeem
Significant Strikes49
Kharitonov's excellent striking offense is matched by Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:39
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Kharitonov's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:39
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Kharitonov has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Kharitonov is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Kharitonov is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Overeem on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Kharitonov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alistair
Overeem
In 10:39, how much damage will he do? Overeem Kharitonov
Significant Strikes68
Overeem's excellent striking offense will dominate Kharitonov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:39
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Overeem's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Kharitonov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:39
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Overeem is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Overeem is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Overeem is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Kharitonov 9.2
fighter Overeem 9.4
Great striking by Overeem
32 strikes Jun 18, 2011 vs Werdum
36 strikes Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
5 strikes Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Kharitonov 7.5
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great takedowns by Overeem
3 takedowns Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
1 takedown Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
1 takedown Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Kharitonov 9.0
fighter Overeem 7.8
Great knockouts by Kharitonov
Round 1 Feb 12, 2011 vs Arlovski
Round 1 Sep 17, 2007 vs Overeem
Round 1 Jun 20, 2004 vs Schilt

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Kharitonov 7.8
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great submissions by Overeem
Round 2 Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
Round 1 Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Round 1 Oct 10, 2004 vs Glunder

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Kharitonov 9.2
fighter Overeem 8.8
Fast finishes by Kharitonov
169 seconds Feb 12, 2011 vs Arlovski
261 seconds Sep 17, 2007 vs Overeem
122 seconds Jun 26, 2005 vs Rizzo
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
XR1 SUB
1,8771,892
1,8291,939
February 26, 2006Pride 31
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XR1 KO
1,9571,983
2,0101,929
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Kharitonov
legend Overeem
Read More
Overeem vs Ngannou
Fantasy Cage Match
Kharitonov vs Minakov
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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