UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Overeem vs Cormier

2,010

CageRank

WINNER
Cormier

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
78% chance Cormier
WILL WIN

2,234

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Daniel Cormier
Significantly heavier hands 8.5 vs 7.8 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 7.9 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly stronger jaw 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Alistair Overeem
Significantly longer reach 202 cm vs 184 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
A lot taller 193 cm vs 180 cm More than 5% taller
Heavier 233 lbs vs 205 lbs Around 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better striker 9.4 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Harder to hit 9.2 vs 9.1 Almost the same
Cormier on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Overeem’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Daniel
Cormier
In 11:59, how much damage will he do? Cormier Overeem
Significant Strikes56
Cormier's excellent striking offense is matched by Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 11:59
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Cormier's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:59
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cormier has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cormier has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cormier is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Overeem on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cormier’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alistair
Overeem
In 11:59, how much damage will he do? Overeem Cormier
Significant Strikes66
Overeem's excellent striking offense will dominate Cormier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 11:59
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Overeem's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cormier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:59
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Overeem is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Overeem is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Overeem is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cormier 9.2
fighter Overeem 9.4
Great striking by Overeem
32 strikes Jun 18, 2011 vs Werdum
36 strikes Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
5 strikes Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cormier 8.5
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great takedowns by Cormier
3 takedowns Oct 19, 2013 vs Nelson
4 takedowns Jan 12, 2013 vs Staring
4 takedowns May 19, 2012 vs Barnett

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cormier 8.5
fighter Overeem 7.8
Great knockouts by Cormier
Round 2 Jan 12, 2013 vs Staring
Round 1 Sep 10, 2011 vs Silva
Round 1 Aug 21, 2010 vs Riley

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cormier 8.0
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great submissions by Cormier
Round 2 Apr 08, 2017 vs Johnson
Round 3 May 24, 2014 vs Henderson
Round 1 Aug 13, 2010 vs Johnson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cormier 8.7
fighter Overeem 8.8
Fast finishes by Overeem
522 seconds Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
313 seconds Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
80 seconds Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cormier
legend Overeem
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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