UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Overeem vs Zingano

2,010

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Overeem

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
60% chance Overeem
WILL WIN

1,937

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Alistair Overeem
Much heavier 256 lbs vs 134 lbs More than 90% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.0 More than 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much taller 196 cm vs 168 cm More than 15% taller
Better striker 9.4 vs 8.4 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much longer reach 202 cm vs 178 cm Around 15% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.0 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.5 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger jaw 8.7 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission offense 7.9 vs 7.7 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Advantages for Cat Zingano
Significantly heavier hands 8.5 vs 7.8 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 7.9 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Slightly younger 35 years vs 37 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Overeem on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Zingano’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alistair
Overeem
In 9:03, how much damage will he do? Overeem Zingano
Significant Strikes60
Overeem's excellent striking offense will dominate Zingano's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 81 Significant Strikes in 9:03
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Overeem's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Zingano's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:03
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Overeem has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Overeem is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Overeem is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Zingano on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Overeem’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Cat
Zingano
In 9:03, how much damage will he do? Zingano Overeem
Significant Strikes27
Zingano's average striking offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 81 Significant Strikes in 9:03
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Zingano's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:03
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Zingano has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Zingano is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Zingano is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Overeem 9.4
fighter Zingano 8.4
Great striking by Overeem
32 strikes Jun 18, 2011 vs Werdum
36 strikes Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
5 strikes Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Overeem 7.9
fighter Zingano 8.6
Great takedowns by Zingano
1 takedown Apr 13, 2013 vs Tate

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Overeem 7.8
fighter Zingano 8.5
Great knockouts by Zingano
Round 3 Apr 13, 2013 vs Tate
Round 3 May 14, 2011 vs Hashi
Round 2 Dec 10, 2010 vs Damm

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Overeem 7.9
fighter Zingano 7.7
Great submissions by Overeem
Round 2 Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
Round 1 Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Round 1 Oct 10, 2004 vs Glunder

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Overeem 8.8
fighter Zingano 8.0
Fast finishes by Overeem
522 seconds Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
313 seconds Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
80 seconds Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Overeem
legend Zingano
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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