UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Overeem vs Rogers

2,010

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Overeem

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
80% chance Overeem
WILL WIN

1,773

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Alistair Overeem
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 7.8 Around 25% better at avoiding being taken down
Much better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.3 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better striker 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.8 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Brett Rogers
Heavier hands 8.3 vs 7.8 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 207 cm vs 202 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier 261 lbs vs 256 lbs Almost the same
Overeem on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rogers’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alistair
Overeem
In 10:06, how much damage will he do? Overeem Rogers
Significant Strikes65
Overeem's excellent striking offense will dominate Rogers's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:06
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Overeem's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Rogers's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:06
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Overeem is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Overeem has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Overeem is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Rogers on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Overeem’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brett
Rogers
In 10:06, how much damage will he do? Rogers Overeem
Significant Strikes36
Rogers's good striking offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:06
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Rogers's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:06
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rogers has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rogers is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rogers is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Overeem 9.4
fighter Rogers 8.7
Great striking by Overeem
32 strikes Jun 18, 2011 vs Werdum
36 strikes Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
5 strikes Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Overeem 7.8
fighter Rogers 8.3
Great knockouts by Rogers
Round 2 Jun 22, 2012 vs Asplund
Round 1 Jun 06, 2009 vs Arlovski
Round 2 Apr 11, 2009 vs Humphrey

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Overeem 7.9
fighter Rogers 6.3
Great submissions by Overeem
Round 2 Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
Round 1 Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Round 1 Oct 10, 2004 vs Glunder

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Overeem 8.8
fighter Rogers 8.1
Fast finishes by Overeem
522 seconds Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
313 seconds Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
80 seconds Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
R2 SUBX
2,0131,917
2,0491,881
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Overeem
legend Rogers
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus