UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Overeem vs Atajev

2,010

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Overeem

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
65% chance Overeem
WILL WIN

1,899

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Alistair Overeem
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 7.9 More than 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Better striker 9.4 vs 8.3 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much taller 196 cm vs 183 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly heavier 256 lbs vs 230 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better submission offense 7.9 vs 7.5 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 8.7 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Bazigit Atajev
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 7.9 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Heavier hands 8.2 vs 7.8 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.0 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Overeem on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Atajev’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alistair
Overeem
In 10:31, how much damage will he do? Overeem Atajev
Significant Strikes71
Overeem's excellent striking offense will dominate Atajev's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 95 Significant Strikes in 10:31
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Overeem's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Atajev's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:31
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Overeem is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Overeem is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Overeem is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Atajev on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Overeem’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Bazigit
Atajev
In 10:31, how much damage will he do? Atajev Overeem
Significant Strikes29
Atajev's average striking offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 95 Significant Strikes in 10:31
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Atajev's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:31
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Atajev has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Atajev is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Atajev is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Overeem 9.4
fighter Atajev 8.3
Great striking by Overeem
32 strikes Jun 18, 2011 vs Werdum
36 strikes Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
5 strikes Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Overeem 7.8
fighter Atajev 8.2
Great knockouts by Atajev
Round 1 Nov 11, 2006 vs Pocevicius
Round 1 Aug 11, 2001 vs Brink
Round 1 Jun 15, 2001 vs Marcum

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Overeem 7.9
fighter Atajev 7.5
Great submissions by Overeem
Round 2 Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
Round 1 Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Round 1 Oct 10, 2004 vs Glunder

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Overeem 8.8
fighter Atajev 9.0
Fast finishes by Atajev
122 seconds Nov 11, 2006 vs Pocevicius
117 seconds Nov 14, 2003 vs Kulikauskas
69 seconds Aug 11, 2001 vs Brink
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 23, 2002Pride 24
team
VS
team
R2 KOX
XR1 SUB
1,8431,894
1,9011,836
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Overeem
legend Atajev
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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