UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Overeem vs McGregor

2,010

CageRank

WINNER
McGregor

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
54% chance McGregor
WILL WIN

2,038

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 7.8 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 7.9 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly younger 29 years vs 38 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Advantages for Alistair Overeem
Much better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.4 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much heavier 256 lbs vs 155 lbs More than 65% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.3 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much taller 196 cm vs 173 cm Around 15% taller
Much harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 9.4 vs 8.6 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly longer reach 202 cm vs 185 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Overeem’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 10:41, how much damage will he do? McGregor Overeem
Significant Strikes37
McGregor's good striking offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:41
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
McGregor's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Overeem's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:41
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Overeem on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alistair
Overeem
In 10:41, how much damage will he do? Overeem McGregor
Significant Strikes72
Overeem's excellent striking offense will dominate McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:41
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Overeem's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:41
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Overeem is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Overeem is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Overeem is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter McGregor 8.6
fighter Overeem 9.4
Great striking by Overeem
32 strikes Jun 18, 2011 vs Werdum
36 strikes Feb 26, 2006 vs Kharitonov
5 strikes Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter McGregor 8.5
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great takedowns by McGregor
4 takedowns Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter McGregor 9.4
fighter Overeem 7.8
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter McGregor 6.5
fighter Overeem 7.9
Great submissions by Overeem
Round 2 Nov 16, 2007 vs Buentello
Round 1 Jun 26, 2005 vs Vovchanchyn
Round 1 Oct 10, 2004 vs Glunder

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter McGregor 9.2
fighter Overeem 8.8
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend McGregor
legend Overeem
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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