UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Emelianenko vs Ogawa

2,189

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Emelianenko

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 1

prediction
95% chance Emelianenko
WILL WIN

1,689

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Fedor Emelianenko
Much harder to hit 9.6 vs 8.6 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better submission defense 9.3 vs 7.7 More than 20% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 9.5 vs 8.1 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 7.9 Around 20% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better striker 9.0 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier hands 8.5 vs 7.3 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly younger 40 years vs 49 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission offense 8.3 vs 7.7 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Advantages for Naoya Ogawa
Significantly heavier 253 lbs vs 222 lbs Around 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
A lot taller 193 cm vs 183 cm More than 5% taller
Stronger takedown offense 8.2 vs 8.0 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Emelianenko on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ogawa’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Fedor
Emelianenko
In 3:35, how much damage will he do? Emelianenko Ogawa
Significant Strikes21
Emelianenko's excellent striking offense will dominate Ogawa's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 32 Significant Strikes in 3:35
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Emelianenko's average takedown offense is matched by Ogawa's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 2 Takedowns in 3:35
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Emelianenko has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Emelianenko has a very good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Emelianenko is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Ogawa on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Emelianenko’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Naoya
Ogawa
In 3:35, how much damage will he do? Ogawa Emelianenko
Significant Strikes8
Ogawa's average striking offense won't be a factor against Emelianenko's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 32 Significant Strikes in 3:35
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Ogawa's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Emelianenko's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 2 Takedowns in 3:35
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ogawa is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Ogawa is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Ogawa is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Emelianenko 9.0
fighter Ogawa 8.4
Great striking by Emelianenko
50 strikes Aug 28, 2005 vs Filipovic
65 strikes Dec 31, 2004 vs Nogueira
79 strikes Mar 16, 2003 vs Nogueira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Emelianenko 8.0
fighter Ogawa 8.2
Great takedowns by Ogawa
1 takedown Jun 20, 2004 vs Cesar Silva
1 takedown Oct 31, 2000 vs Satake
2 takedowns Jul 04, 1999 vs Goodridge

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Emelianenko 8.5
fighter Ogawa 7.3
Great knockouts by Emelianenko
Round 2 Nov 07, 2009 vs Rogers
Round 1 Jan 24, 2009 vs Arlovski
Round 1 Nov 24, 2002 vs Herring

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Emelianenko 8.3
fighter Ogawa 7.7
Great submissions by Emelianenko
Round 1 Jul 19, 2008 vs Sylvia
Round 1 Apr 14, 2007 vs Lindland
Round 2 Oct 21, 2006 vs Coleman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Emelianenko 9.5
fighter Ogawa 8.2
Fast finishes by Emelianenko
194 seconds Jan 24, 2009 vs Arlovski
36 seconds Jul 19, 2008 vs Sylvia
178 seconds Apr 14, 2007 vs Lindland
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
R2 SUBX
2,1371,759
2,1471,749
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Emelianenko
legend Ogawa
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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