UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Emelianenko vs Sakuraba

2,189

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Emelianenko

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
95% chance Emelianenko
WILL WIN

1,676

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Fedor Emelianenko
Much heavier hands 8.5 vs 6.2 Around 40% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.5 vs 7.6 More than 25% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 9.0 vs 7.4 More than 20% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much harder to hit 9.6 vs 8.4 Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.2 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly heavier 222 lbs vs 166 lbs Around 35% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.4 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Younger 40 years vs 47 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better submission offense 8.3 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better takedown defense 9.3 vs 9.1 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger takedown offense 8.0 vs 7.8 Almost the same
Advantages for Kazushi Sakuraba
From what we can tell, Fedor Emelianenko dominates Kazushi Sakuraba in every way.
Emelianenko on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sakuraba’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Fedor
Emelianenko
In 5:33, how much damage will he do? Emelianenko Sakuraba
Significant Strikes34
Emelianenko's excellent striking offense will dominate Sakuraba's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 50 Significant Strikes in 5:33
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Emelianenko's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Sakuraba's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:33
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Emelianenko has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Emelianenko has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Emelianenko is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Sakuraba on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Emelianenko’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kazushi
Sakuraba
In 5:33, how much damage will he do? Sakuraba Emelianenko
Significant Strikes5
Sakuraba's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Emelianenko's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 50 Significant Strikes in 5:33
Poor
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Sakuraba's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Emelianenko's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:33
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sakuraba is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sakuraba has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sakuraba is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Emelianenko 9.0
fighter Sakuraba 7.4
Great striking by Emelianenko
50 strikes Aug 28, 2005 vs Filipovic
65 strikes Dec 31, 2004 vs Nogueira
79 strikes Mar 16, 2003 vs Nogueira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Emelianenko 8.0
fighter Sakuraba 7.8
Great takedowns by Emelianenko
4 takedowns Aug 28, 2005 vs Filipovic
5 takedowns Dec 31, 2004 vs Nogueira
1 takedown Mar 16, 2003 vs Nogueira

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Emelianenko 8.5
fighter Sakuraba 6.2
Great knockouts by Emelianenko
Round 2 Nov 07, 2009 vs Rogers
Round 1 Jan 24, 2009 vs Arlovski
Round 1 Nov 24, 2002 vs Herring

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Emelianenko 8.3
fighter Sakuraba 8.1
Great submissions by Emelianenko
Round 1 Jul 19, 2008 vs Sylvia
Round 1 Apr 14, 2007 vs Lindland
Round 2 Oct 21, 2006 vs Coleman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Emelianenko 9.5
fighter Sakuraba 7.6
Fast finishes by Emelianenko
194 seconds Jan 24, 2009 vs Arlovski
36 seconds Jul 19, 2008 vs Sylvia
178 seconds Apr 14, 2007 vs Lindland
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Emelianenko
legend Sakuraba
Read More
Emelianenko vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Sakuraba vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 3 comments.
BTW, the first guy to sub a BJJ blackbelt in MMA was actually Rumina Sato, not Sakuraba. But your point is well taken nonetheless. And Saku made more of a habit of it.
Yeah, this was a horrible Cage Rank. Grappling and wrestling-wise, obviously Sakuraba is way superior.
i'm looking at this and LOLing. Fedor definitely had a better hand striking game, whereas Sakuraba's kickboxing was far better. -TAKEDOWNS in favor of Fedor is laughable. Sakuraba is an Olympic caliber wrestler who is regarded as the best takedown artist in MMA history. -Submission Offense, Sakuraba has 19 sub wins to Fedor's 16. Sakuraba has far more submission wins over greater talent than Fedor. He holds sub wins over Carlos Newton, Braga, Conan Silviera, Funaki, Minowa, Rampage, and of course Renzo and Ryan Gracie. He is the first man to sub a BJJ blackbelt in MMA and the only Man to sub a Gracie in MMA. Linland having the best submission acumen of anyone Fedor submitted. -Sub defense, Sakuraba has been submitted 1 more time than Fedor, though not until he was 42 years old against a 27 YO, while Fedor was submitted at 34 against a man his age. Hand striking, Size and Youth are really Fedor's Advantages.
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