UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Clementi vs Aoki

1,812

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
93% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.6 More than 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 7.9 Around 25% better at avoiding being taken down
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 7.6 Around 25% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.3 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 8.4 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better submission defense 9.8 vs 8.7 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 180 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Younger 34 years vs 41 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Rich Clementi
Significantly heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Better striker 7.7 vs 7.4 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Clementi’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 10:11, how much damage will he do? Aoki Clementi
Significant Strikes22
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Clementi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 92 Significant Strikes in 10:11
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Clementi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:11
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Clementi on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Rich
Clementi
In 10:11, how much damage will he do? Clementi Aoki
Significant Strikes9
Clementi's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 92 Significant Strikes in 10:11
Poor
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Clementi's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:11
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Clementi is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Clementi has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Clementi is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Clementi 7.7
Great striking by Clementi
20 strikes May 24, 2008 vs Etim
40 strikes Apr 19, 2008 vs Stout
6 strikes Dec 29, 2007 vs Guillard

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Clementi 8.3
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Clementi 6.1
Great knockouts by Clementi
Round 1 Oct 15, 2005 vs Mickle
Round 3 May 22, 2004 vs Yagin
Round 2 May 10, 2001 vs Donley

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Clementi 8.4
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Clementi 7.6
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR2 SUB
XR2 SUB
1,7882,206
1,7802,214
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Clementi
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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