UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Aurelio vs Aoki

1,893

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
89% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.7 Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.1 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 8.9 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.5 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.6 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly younger 34 years vs 44 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.5 Almost the same
Taller 180 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Marcus Aurelio
Better striker 8.2 vs 7.4 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 7.0 vs 6.1 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger jaw 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.4 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Longer reach 188 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier 169 lbs vs 153 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aurelio’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Aoki Aurelio
Significant Strikes31
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Aurelio's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Aurelio's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Aurelio on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Marcus
Aurelio
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Aurelio Aoki
Significant Strikes21
Aurelio's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Aurelio's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aurelio is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aurelio has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aurelio is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Aurelio 8.2
Great striking by Aurelio
6 strikes Apr 02, 2008 vs Roberts
3 strikes Apr 02, 2006 vs Gomi
16 strikes Jul 17, 2005 vs Nakao

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Aurelio 8.1
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Aurelio 7.0
Great knockouts by Aurelio
Round 2 Feb 06, 2009 vs Liguori
Round 1 Nov 17, 2007 vs Caudillo
Round 2 May 05, 2004 vs Kotani

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Aurelio 8.9
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Aurelio 8.5
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
September 25, 2010Dream 16
team
VS
team
XR2 DEC
XDEC
1,9132,164
1,8942,184
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Aurelio
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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