Marcus Aurelio Maximus 22-10

Weight 169 lbs
Height 5' 10"
Reach 74"
Age 44

Shinya Aoki 39-8 Tobikan Judan

153 lbs
5' 11"
72"
34

CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Aurelio vs Aoki

CageRank

89% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

CageRank

WINNER

Differences What advantages does each fighter have?

Advantages for Shinya Aoki

Much harder to hit	10.0	vs	8.7	Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger takedown offense	9.6	vs	8.1	Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better submission offense	9.9	vs	8.9	More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes	9.4	vs	8.5	More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better takedown defense	9.7	vs	8.6	Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly younger	34 years	vs	44 years	Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense	9.8	vs	9.5	Almost the same
Slightly taller	180 cm	vs	178 cm	Almost the same

Advantages for Marcus Aurelio

Better striker	8.2	vs	7.4	More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands	7.0	vs	6.1	More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger jaw	9.3	vs	8.9	Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight	9.7	vs	9.4	Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Longer reach	188 cm	vs	183 cm	Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier	169 lbs	vs	153 lbs	More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control

Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aurelio’s defensive skills

Predictions For Shinya Aoki
In 15:00, how much damage will he do?	Aoki		Aurelio
Significant Strikes31 Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Aurelio's defense Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00	Poor Striking	vs	Average Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5 Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Aurelio's defense Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00	Excellent Takedown ability	vs	Average Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout	Weak Knockout ability	vs	Excellent Jaw
Submission Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission	Excellent Submission ability	vs	Excellent Resistance
Decision Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by decision	Average Scoring ability	vs	Average Scoring ability

Aurelio on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills

Predictions For Marcus Aurelio
In 15:00, how much damage will he do?	Aurelio		Aoki
Significant Strikes21 Aurelio's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00	Average Striking	vs	Excellent Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1 Aurelio's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00	Average Takedown ability	vs	Excellent Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout Aurelio is unlikely to win by knockout	Average Knockout ability	vs	Excellent Jaw
Submission Aurelio has a reasonable chance to win by submission	Excellent Submission ability	vs	Excellent Resistance
Decision Aurelio is unlikely to win by decision	Poor Scoring ability	vs	Excellent Scoring ability