CAGERANK PREDICTION
Who will win - Aurelio vs Aoki
Differences
What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much harder to hit | 10.0 | vs | 8.7 | Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage |
Much stronger takedown offense | 9.6 | vs | 8.1 | Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat |
Much better submission offense | 9.9 | vs | 8.9 | More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win |
Fast finishes | 9.4 | vs | 8.5 | More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss |
Much better takedown defense | 9.7 | vs | 8.6 | Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down |
Significantly younger | 34 years | vs | 44 years | Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon |
Better submission defense | 9.8 | vs | 9.5 | Almost the same |
Slightly taller | 180 cm | vs | 178 cm | Almost the same |
Advantages for Marcus Aurelio
Better striker | 8.2 | vs | 7.4 | More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders |
Much heavier hands | 7.0 | vs | 6.1 | More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders |
Stronger jaw | 9.3 | vs | 8.9 | Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions |
Puts up a fight | 9.7 | vs | 9.4 | Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds |
Longer reach | 188 cm | vs | 183 cm | Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance |
Heavier | 169 lbs | vs | 153 lbs | More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control |
Aoki on the attack
Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aurelio’s defensive skills
Predictions For Shinya Aoki |
|||
---|---|---|---|
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? | Aoki | Aurelio | |
Significant Strikes31
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Aurelio's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00 |
Poor
Striking
|
vs |
Average
Blocking and avoiding
|
Takedowns5
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Aurelio's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00 |
Excellent
Takedown ability
|
vs |
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
|
If he wins, how will it go down? | |||
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout |
Weak
Knockout ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Jaw
|
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission |
Excellent
Submission ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Resistance
|
Decision
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by decision |
Average
Scoring ability
|
vs |
Average
Scoring ability
|
Aurelio on the attack
Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For Marcus Aurelio |
|||
---|---|---|---|
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? | Aurelio | Aoki | |
Significant Strikes21
Aurelio's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00 |
Average
Striking
|
vs |
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
|
Takedowns1
Aurelio's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00 |
Average
Takedown ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
|
If he wins, how will it go down? | |||
Knockout
Aurelio is unlikely to win by knockout |
Average
Knockout ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Jaw
|
Submission
Aurelio has a reasonable chance to win by submission |
Excellent
Submission ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Resistance
|
Decision
Aurelio is unlikely to win by decision |
Poor
Scoring ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Scoring ability
|
OFFENSE
Who’s better on the attack?
striking
Who can land devastating blows when it matters?Great striking by Aurelio
6 strikes | Apr 02, 2008 | vs Roberts |
3 strikes | Apr 02, 2006 | vs Gomi |
16 strikes | Jul 17, 2005 | vs Nakao |
takedowns
Who's going to take it to the ground?Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns | Dec 31, 2012 | vs McKee |
6 takedowns | Dec 31, 2011 | vs Kitaoka |
1 takedown | Apr 29, 2008 | vs Cavalcante |
knockouts
Who's better at knocking out opponents?Great knockouts by Aurelio
Round 2 | Feb 06, 2009 | vs Liguori |
Round 1 | Nov 17, 2007 | vs Caudillo |
Round 2 | May 05, 2004 | vs Kotani |
submissions
Who can finish it on the ground?Great submissions by Aoki
Round 1 | Jul 10, 2010 | vs Kawajiri |
Round 1 | Dec 31, 2008 | vs Alvarez |
Round 1 | Aug 26, 2006 | vs Black |
Fast finishes
Who can end the fight faster? Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds | Dec 31, 2012 | vs McKee |
113 seconds | Jul 10, 2010 | vs Kawajiri |
92 seconds | Dec 31, 2008 | vs Alvarez |
Fight History
Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
Cage Rank Over Time
See how Cage Rank changes with each fight


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Comments
Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?