UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nogueira vs Emelianenko

1,950

CageRank

WINNER
Emelianenko

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
80% chance Emelianenko
WILL WIN

2,189

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Fedor Emelianenko
Much harder to hit 9.6 vs 8.8 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Fast finishes 9.5 vs 8.2 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 8.5 vs 6.8 Around 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 9.3 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.9 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Antonio Nogueira
A lot taller 191 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% taller
Heavier 239 lbs vs 222 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Emelianenko on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nogueira’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Fedor
Emelianenko
In 7:29, how much damage will he do? Emelianenko Nogueira
Significant Strikes39
Emelianenko's excellent striking offense will dominate Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 67 Significant Strikes in 7:29
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Emelianenko's average takedown offense is matched by Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:29
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Emelianenko has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Emelianenko has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Emelianenko is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Nogueira on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Emelianenko’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Antonio
Nogueira
In 7:29, how much damage will he do? Nogueira Emelianenko
Significant Strikes20
Nogueira's good striking offense won't be a factor against Emelianenko's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 67 Significant Strikes in 7:29
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Nogueira's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Emelianenko's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:29
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nogueira is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nogueira has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nogueira is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Emelianenko 9.0
fighter Nogueira 8.6
Great striking by Emelianenko
50 strikes Aug 28, 2005 vs Filipovic
65 strikes Dec 31, 2004 vs Nogueira
79 strikes Mar 16, 2003 vs Nogueira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Emelianenko 8.0
fighter Nogueira 8.0
Great takedowns by Nogueira
2 takedowns Feb 02, 2008 vs Sylvia
1 takedown Dec 31, 2006 vs Barnett
1 takedown Nov 09, 2003 vs Filipovic

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Emelianenko 8.5
fighter Nogueira 6.9
Great knockouts by Emelianenko
Round 2 Nov 07, 2009 vs Rogers
Round 1 Jan 24, 2009 vs Arlovski
Round 1 Nov 24, 2002 vs Herring

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Emelianenko 8.3
fighter Nogueira 8.3
Great submissions by Nogueira
Round 3 Feb 02, 2008 vs Sylvia
Round 2 Jun 20, 2004 vs Herring
Round 2 Oct 09, 2000 vs Tamura

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Emelianenko 9.5
fighter Nogueira 8.2
Fast finishes by Emelianenko
194 seconds Jan 24, 2009 vs Arlovski
36 seconds Jul 19, 2008 vs Sylvia
178 seconds Apr 14, 2007 vs Lindland
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 31, 2004Pride - Shockwave 2004
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
R1 SUBX
2,1822,147
2,1272,202
team
VS
team
XX
XX
00
00
March 16, 2003Pride 25
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
R2 SUBX
2,1461,984
2,0752,056
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Emelianenko
legend Nogueira
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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