UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nogueira vs Velasquez

1,950

CageRank

WINNER
Velasquez

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
83% chance Velasquez
WILL WIN

2,220

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Cain Velasquez
Much heavier hands 10.0 vs 6.8 More than 45% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 10.0 vs 8.6 More than 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 8.8 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.0 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Fast finishes 9.3 vs 8.2 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Younger 34 years vs 40 years 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger jaw 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Antonio Nogueira
Much better submission offense 8.3 vs 6.7 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Taller 191 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Velasquez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nogueira’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Cain
Velasquez
In 8:01, how much damage will he do? Velasquez Nogueira
Significant Strikes57
Velasquez's excellent striking offense will dominate Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 72 Significant Strikes in 8:01
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Velasquez's excellent takedown offense will dominate Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 8:01
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Velasquez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Velasquez is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Velasquez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Nogueira on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Velasquez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Antonio
Nogueira
In 8:01, how much damage will he do? Nogueira Velasquez
Significant Strikes19
Nogueira's good striking offense won't be a factor against Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 72 Significant Strikes in 8:01
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Nogueira's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 8:01
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nogueira is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nogueira has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nogueira is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Velasquez 10.0
fighter Nogueira 8.6
Great striking by Velasquez
18 strikes May 25, 2013 vs Silva
111 strikes Dec 29, 2012 vs dos Santos
23 strikes Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Velasquez 9.2
fighter Nogueira 8.0
Great takedowns by Velasquez
2 takedowns Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
11 takedowns Dec 29, 2012 vs dos Santos
5 takedowns Oct 24, 2009 vs Rothwell

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Velasquez 10.0
fighter Nogueira 6.9
Great knockouts by Velasquez
Round 5 Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
Round 1 May 25, 2013 vs Silva
Round 1 Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Velasquez 6.7
fighter Nogueira 8.3
Great submissions by Nogueira
Round 3 Feb 02, 2008 vs Sylvia
Round 2 Jun 20, 2004 vs Herring
Round 2 Oct 09, 2000 vs Tamura

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Velasquez 9.4
fighter Nogueira 8.2
Fast finishes by Velasquez
1389 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
81 seconds May 25, 2013 vs Silva
140 seconds Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 20, 2010UFC 110
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
DECX
2,1401,947
2,0652,023
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Velasquez
legend Nogueira
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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