UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nogueira vs Werdum

1,950

CageRank

WINNER
Werdum

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
80% chance Werdum
WILL WIN

2,192

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Fabricio Werdum
Significantly better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 10.0 vs 8.9 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly fast finishes 9.0 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly heavier hands 7.9 vs 6.8 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better striker 9.1 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 8.0 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 193 cm vs 191 cm Almost the same
Better submission offense 8.5 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Slightly younger 39 years vs 41 years Around 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Antonio Nogueira
From what we can tell, Fabricio Werdum dominates Antonio Nogueira in every way.
Werdum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nogueira’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Fabricio
Werdum
In 9:34, how much damage will he do? Werdum Nogueira
Significant Strikes51
Werdum's excellent striking offense will dominate Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 86 Significant Strikes in 9:34
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Werdum's average takedown offense is matched by Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:34
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Werdum is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Werdum has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Werdum is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Nogueira on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Werdum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Antonio
Nogueira
In 9:34, how much damage will he do? Nogueira Werdum
Significant Strikes32
Nogueira's good striking offense won't be a factor against Werdum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 86 Significant Strikes in 9:34
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nogueira's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Werdum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:34
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nogueira is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nogueira has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nogueira has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Werdum 9.1
fighter Nogueira 8.6
Great striking by Werdum
32 strikes Jun 08, 2013 vs Nogueira
31 strikes Jun 23, 2012 vs Russow
1 strike Jun 26, 2010 vs Emelianenko

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Werdum 8.6
fighter Nogueira 8.0
Great takedowns by Werdum
1 takedown Jun 08, 2013 vs Nogueira
3 takedowns Nov 07, 2009 vs Silva
1 takedown May 05, 2006 vs Overeem

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Werdum 7.9
fighter Nogueira 6.9
Great knockouts by Werdum
Round 1 Jun 23, 2012 vs Russow
Round 1 Jun 07, 2008 vs Vera
Round 2 Jan 19, 2008 vs Gonzaga

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Werdum 8.5
fighter Nogueira 8.3
Great submissions by Werdum
Round 2 Jun 08, 2013 vs Nogueira
Round 1 Jun 26, 2010 vs Emelianenko
Round 2 May 05, 2006 vs Overeem

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Werdum 9.0
fighter Nogueira 8.2
Fast finishes by Werdum
461 seconds Jun 08, 2013 vs Nogueira
148 seconds Jun 23, 2012 vs Russow
69 seconds Jun 26, 2010 vs Emelianenko
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
June 8, 2013UFC on Fuel TV 10
team
VS
team
XR2 SUB
XDEC
2,0552,102
2,0122,145
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
R1 SUBX
2,1481,905
2,1681,885
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Werdum
legend Nogueira
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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