UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nogueira vs Mir

1,950

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Nogueira

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
50% chance Nogueira
WILL WIN

1,948

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Antonio Nogueira
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission offense 8.3 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Advantages for Frank Mir
Significantly better takedown defense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly heavier 261 lbs vs 239 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier hands 7.2 vs 6.8 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.4 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 39 years vs 42 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Nogueira on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mir’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Antonio
Nogueira
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nogueira Mir
Significant Strikes66
Nogueira's good striking offense may be a factor against Mir's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nogueira's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Mir's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nogueira is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Nogueira has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nogueira is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Mir on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nogueira’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Frank
Mir
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Mir Nogueira
Significant Strikes65
Mir's good striking offense may be a factor against Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Mir's average takedown offense is matched by Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mir is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mir has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mir is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nogueira 8.6
fighter Mir 8.7
Great striking by Mir
6 strikes Dec 10, 2011 vs Nogueira
37 strikes Dec 27, 2008 vs Nogueira
3 strikes Jun 19, 2004 vs Sylvia

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nogueira 8.0
fighter Mir 8.1
Great takedowns by Mir
1 takedown Dec 10, 2011 vs Nogueira
6 takedowns May 28, 2011 vs Nelson
1 takedown Dec 27, 2008 vs Nogueira

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nogueira 6.9
fighter Mir 7.2
Great knockouts by Mir
Round 3 Sep 25, 2010 vs Filipovic
Round 2 Dec 27, 2008 vs Nogueira
Round 2 Jan 31, 2004 vs Sims

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nogueira 8.3
fighter Mir 8.1
Great submissions by Nogueira
Round 3 Feb 02, 2008 vs Sylvia
Round 2 Jun 20, 2004 vs Herring
Round 2 Oct 09, 2000 vs Tamura

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nogueira 8.2
fighter Mir 8.4
Fast finishes by Mir
218 seconds Dec 10, 2011 vs Nogueira
414 seconds Dec 27, 2008 vs Nogueira
50 seconds Jun 19, 2004 vs Sylvia
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 10, 2011UFC 140
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
DECX
2,0931,978
2,0272,044
December 27, 2008UFC 92
team
VS
team
XR2 KO
R2 SUBX
2,2021,850
2,1141,939
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nogueira
legend Mir
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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