UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nakamura vs Martin

1,908

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Nakamura

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
59% chance Nakamura
WILL WIN

1,843

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Keita Nakamura
Significantly stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.2 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission defense 8.9 vs 8.3 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Fast finishes 8.4 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 8.4 vs 8.2 Almost the same
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Tony Martin
Younger 28 years vs 33 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Harder to hit 8.5 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Better submission offense 8.3 vs 8.1 Almost the same
Slightly taller 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Nakamura on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Martin’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Keita
Nakamura
In 10:07, how much damage will he do? Nakamura Martin
Significant Strikes47
Nakamura's average striking offense is matched by Martin's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:07
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Nakamura's average takedown offense is matched by Martin's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:07
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nakamura is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Nakamura has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Nakamura is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Martin on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nakamura’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tony
Martin
In 10:07, how much damage will he do? Martin Nakamura
Significant Strikes46
Martin's average striking offense is matched by Nakamura's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:07
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Martin's average takedown offense is matched by Nakamura's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:07
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Martin is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Martin has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Martin is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nakamura 8.4
fighter Martin 8.2
Great striking by Nakamura
47 strikes Sep 23, 2008 vs Martins

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nakamura 8.5
fighter Martin 8.5
Great takedowns by Nakamura
1 takedown Sep 23, 2008 vs Martins

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nakamura 7.2
fighter Martin 7.2
Great knockouts by Nakamura
Round 1 Mar 30, 2012 vs Kim
Round 2 Jun 20, 2010 vs de la Cruz
Round 1 Nov 11, 2007 vs Hanai

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nakamura 8.1
fighter Martin 8.3
Great submissions by Martin
Round 2 Sep 14, 2013 vs Gifford
Round 3 Sep 08, 2012 vs Knutson
Round 1 Apr 28, 2012 vs Kuchlong

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nakamura 8.4
fighter Martin 8.2
Fast finishes by Nakamura
129 seconds Dec 24, 2012 vs Suzuki
210 seconds Oct 30, 2010 vs Wada
118 seconds Apr 29, 2006 vs Jae Jun
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nakamura
legend Martin
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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